A new economic forecast is warning of a sharp downturn in tourist arrivals to Fiji as global instability and rising costs stemming from the Middle East conflict weigh on travel demand and airline operations. The Asian Development Bank’s Asian Development Outlook 2026, released this year, highlights how sustained geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices could reverberate through small, tourism‑dependent economies such as Fiji’s, reducing visitor numbers and straining local businesses.
Tourism Action Group (TAG) chair Damend Goundar said the industry is already taking the projection seriously and has begun adjusting plans. TAG — which was reactivated in March 2026 as a coordinated response mechanism to the emerging risks posed by the Middle East crisis — is working closely with government and private operators to protect existing bookings while preparing stimulus measures for future demand. “The short term is the protection of all the bookings that are already in and coming in,” Goundar told this newspaper, adding that mid‑ to long‑term measures are being drawn up to boost bookings into the second quarter and early 2027.
Goundar warned that the effects of the crisis are likely to intensify over time, with fuel prices and supply disruptions among the key concerns. He said TAG members are encouraging fuel conservation across the sector as a precaution and are monitoring availability closely. “Our biggest concern is the availability of fuel in the country. While fuel remains accessible, conservation measures are being encouraged,” he said, noting that further price rises would increase pressure on airlines and make travel less affordable for many markets.
The ADB’s assessment links the projected downturn to broader spillovers from rising geopolitical tensions: higher global energy costs, disrupted supply chains and weaker consumer confidence in key source markets. For island nations that rely heavily on international tourism, those dynamics can quickly translate into fewer flights, higher fares and reduced package affordability — all of which suppress arrivals. The outlook therefore escalates the urgency for coordinated policy responses between industry and government.
TAG’s reactivation in March signalled a shift from routine marketing and recovery planning to crisis coordination, officials say. The group is reported to be exploring a mix of short‑term protective steps and targeted promotional pushes aimed at stimulating bookings once travel sentiment stabilises. Goundar said focus areas include stimulating demand into traditionally quieter months and early 2027, though he declined to detail specific campaigns while planning is under way.
Government tourism officials and carriers have not yet published a unified response to the ADB warning, but the sector’s move to formalise contingency planning underscores how external geopolitical shocks can rapidly alter projections for Pacific tourism. With fuel availability and price volatility central to the ADB’s concerns, the coming weeks are likely to see further consultations between TAG, airline partners and ministries to firm up measures that protect jobs and preserve booking confidence as the region navigates an uncertain global outlook.
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