Tropical Cyclone Urmil, which has reached Category 1 status, is currently positioned over Vanuatu and is forecasted to track southeast, bringing strong winds and significant rain to parts of Fiji starting later today. The storm is located approximately 237 kilometers south-southeast of Port Vila and is moving east-southeast at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Urmil is generating considerable wave heights, reaching up to 6.7 meters. As it continues on its present course, it is expected to direct a robust north-westerly wind flow towards Fiji, increasing the likelihood of active rain bands impacting the region throughout the day.
Meteorologists report that the environment steering the cyclone will strengthen in the next 12 hours as a subtropical ridge elongates. This will allow Urmil to accelerate its southeastward movement. In the next 24 hours, the cyclone is predicted to further shift southeast and move poleward.
Although Urmil’s intensification has slowed down recently due to wind shear and interaction with geographical features on Tanna Island, more favorable conditions are anticipated once it moves over open waters again. Forecast models suggest that the storm could strengthen within the next 12 to 24 hours, potentially reaching peak winds of up to 150 kilometers per hour.
However, experts warn that Urmil is not expected to hold onto this peak strength for long. Forecasts indicate that strong wind shear, dry air intrusion, and cooler sea surface temperatures are likely to weaken the system within the next two days. This might trigger a transition into a subtropical system within 48 to 60 hours.
Residents in affected areas are being advised to remain vigilant, adhere to official warnings, and take necessary precautions as unsettled weather conditions are expected to persist. The community is reminded of the importance of preparedness and vigilance during these turbulent weather events.
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