Fiji’s tourism recovery lost steam on outlooks this week despite a strong first quarter, with economists warning elevated fuel costs and geopolitical tensions could leave arrivals broadly flat for 2026. New data show 196,977 visitor arrivals to Fiji from January to March 2026 — a 7.0 percent year‑on‑year increase — but momentum is expected to falter through the rest of the year unless key cost pressures ease.
Westpac Fiji senior economist Shamal Chand said monthly growth strengthened through the quarter, rising from just 0.3 percent year‑on‑year in January to 9.6 percent in February and 12.4 percent in March. March recorded the highest visitor numbers ever for that month, he noted, suggesting demand had regained momentum following the seasonal slowdown in February. The figures were published in Westpac’s latest Wave economic briefing.
Despite the robust start, Chand warned the “outlook for the remainder of the year is becoming more challenging.” He pointed to the ongoing Middle East conflict and its knock‑on effects: elevated jet fuel prices and the risk of fuel supply disruptions are increasing operational costs for airlines and posing a material headwind for the wider tourism sector. “Fuel remaining the national airline’s single largest cost,” Chand said, means prolonged higher prices will pressure margins and airline capacity.
Those pressures are already visible in airline scheduling. Fiji Airways has announced temporary suspensions affecting four services across two international routes: the Nadi–Brisbane route will be scaled back from late April, and Tuesday services on the Dallas–Nadi route will be suspended from mid‑June. Chand said the carrier may pursue further route consolidation if offshore access to jet fuel is constrained, as some countries prioritise domestic supplies in times of tight markets.
The Westpac analysis sets a baseline expecting visitor arrivals to be broadly flat for 2026 unless there are significant falls in fuel prices or disruptions to operations remain limited. That scenario contrasts with the stronger early‑year performance and underscores how external geopolitical and commodity shocks can quickly reshape Fiji’s tourism prospects.
For an island nation heavily reliant on tourism revenues and international air connectivity, sustained high jet fuel costs would not only hit airlines’ profitability but could reduce flight capacity, raise airfares and dampen arrivals. Westpac’s warning adds to concerns among industry players who have pointed to rising costs and shifting travel patterns since the start of the year.
Chand said there remains upside risk if global fuel prices retreat and supply routes stabilise, but for now the message to policymakers and the tourism sector is one of caution: strong first‑quarter results do not guarantee a buoyant year ahead if external supply and price shocks persist.