The Fijian economy is anticipated to experience a growth rate of 3.2 percent this year, a slight decrease from the previously forecasted 3.4 percent. The Reserve Bank of Fiji’s Macroeconomic Committee, led by Chair Ariff Ali, made this adjustment following a comprehensive evaluation of economic conditions.
While the first five months of the year revealed generally positive indicators, concerns were raised about visitor arrivals, which are no longer expected to rise as initially predicted. Rather than increasing by four percent as previously estimated, visitor numbers are now forecast to remain flat through 2025, reflecting a shift in industry feedback and trends.
On a brighter note, government spending has been enhancing demand, with expectations that the upcoming National Budget will further support economic growth. Indicators such as domestic VAT collections, employment rates, remittances, and bank credit demonstrate significant growth, thereby validating the revised economic outlook.
Ali indicated that while global economic conditions pose challenges, particularly a slowdown on the international stage, the country can expect a return to a long-term growth trend of around three percent by 2026 and 2027. Growth will be primarily fueled by the service sectors, alongside contributions from industrial and primary industries.
The outlook also revises the 2024 growth rate, noting a substantial expansion of four percent. Notably, positive contributions to this growth stem from sectors such as public administration, transportation, accommodation, ICT, retail, financial services, manufacturing, and agriculture.
Lastly, the Committee is expected to reassess these projections in the last quarter of 2025, reinforcing the focus on adapting to changing economic conditions and planning for sustainable growth.
This ongoing evaluation underscores the resilience of Fiji’s economy, emphasizing potential for recovery and growth, particularly in sectors like government spending and domestic consumption, which appear strong despite the challenges faced in tourism. The strategic focus will likely pave the way for a more robust economic performance in the years to come.
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