Fiji is likely to remain in ENSO‑neutral conditions through June but faces an increasing chance of a shift to El Niño later in the year, the Fiji Meteorological Service says in its latest Fiji Ocean Outlook. The update flags pockets of warmer waters around the northern islands and warns of evolving marine conditions that could affect fisheries, coral and coastal communities.
The outlook forecasts above‑normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between May and July for waters surrounding the Northern Division, Koro, the northern Lau Group and Rotuma. The rest of Fiji’s maritime areas are expected to experience near‑normal SSTs during the same period. Above‑average sea temperatures in the north raise the potential for localised marine heat stress, which can influence fish distribution and coastal ecosystems.
Forecasters also expect the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) to shift south of its usual position, although it is projected to remain within Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone. A repositioned SPCZ can alter patterns of cloud, rainfall and winds across the country’s maritime domain, with implications for navigation and seasonal rainfall distribution in affected areas.
A coral bleaching “Watch” alert has been issued for waters north of Vanua Levu, including Rotuma, marking the first level of concern for reefs in those areas. The remainder of Fiji’s waters are currently under “No Stress” conditions. The Watch indicates that warming may be sufficient to trigger bleaching if elevated temperatures persist or intensify, prompting reef managers and tourism operators to be vigilant.
Sea level forecasts in the outlook show below‑normal levels across the Western and Central Divisions, much of the Eastern Division and the south‑west coast of Bua, while Rotuma is expected to see above‑normal sea levels. Near‑normal sea levels are predicted elsewhere. Variations in sea level affect coastal access, boat operations and shoreline conditions, and can either reduce or increase localised flooding and erosion risks depending on location.
The Fiji Meteorological Service says the ocean outlook provides important guidance for marine, fisheries and other climate‑sensitive sectors as conditions evolve over the coming months. The possibility of an El Niño developing later in the year means stakeholders should monitor successive outlooks, as a shift to El Niño typically alters rainfall, sea temperatures and tropical cyclone patterns across the Pacific.
Authorities will continue to update sea surface, sea level and reef status forecasts as new data become available. Communities, fisheries operators and marine managers in the Northern Division, the Lau Group and Rotuma have been advised to pay particular attention to updates and preparedness measures if warming trends persist.
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