ANZ Pacific economist Kishti Sen has warned that petrol in Fiji could climb by about $0.25 per litre over the next two months as rising global oil prices tied to tensions in the Middle East feed through to domestic fuel supplies. With retail petrol currently around $2.44 per litre, Sen said motorists in urban areas may see prices approach $2.70 a litre by May 1, 2026, when monthly fuel-price adjustments fully reflect recent increases on world markets.
Sen explained the lag in impact stems from Fiji’s monthly pricing mechanism, which bases retail adjustments on the cost of fuel imported the previous month. That means some of the petrol currently on local forecourts was likely contracted at lower prices before the latest spike in oil markets. “By May 1, 2026, you will see the full impact of the recent increases we’ve seen in the oil market,” he said, estimating a roughly 25-cent rise at the petrol bazaar over the coming two months.
The economist said higher pump prices would be the most immediate pressure on household budgets, but wider inflationary effects are possible if the conflict escalates or if shipping through key chokepoints — such as the Strait of Hormuz — remains disrupted. Even a short-lived confrontation could leave prices elevated for some time because oil shipments and shipping schedules take weeks to return to normal, he added. Sen pointed to 2022 as a cautionary comparison, noting that when global prices surged after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Fiji’s petrol hit a peak of $3.68 per litre and overall inflation climbed above 6 percent, with food and transport costs rising sharply.
Rising aviation fuel costs are another knock-on concern, with Sen warning that airfares — especially for travellers from Australia, a key market for Fijian tourism — are likely to increase if jet fuel prices continue to climb. That prospect comes as Pacific governments watch global energy markets closely, given the region’s heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Sen used the latest price outlook to underscore the longer-term vulnerability of Pacific economies to global fuel volatility and the strategic case for accelerating the transition to renewable energy. That argument echoes recent policy discussions in Fiji; Energy Fiji Ltd and government officials have previously outlined plans to expand hydro, solar and battery storage capacity to reduce exposure to international fuel swings. Industry officials have estimated the transition will require substantial investment to shift the power mix and stabilize energy costs.
For households, Sen advised calm and careful budget management, suggesting families lean on existing coping mechanisms such as remittances while the situation evolves. This update is the newest development in a broader regional response to unrest in the Middle East that has already prompted Pacific leaders to review fuel security and contingency planning. Authorities and industry players will be monitoring monthly price releases closely as May approaches and the full pass-through of recent oil-market moves becomes visible in local pump prices.
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