A fresh track map from the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) shows Tropical Depression TD11F is now forecast to strengthen into a tropical cyclone and reach Category 3 intensity while tracking south of Fiji, though the system’s centre is expected to remain well offshore.
The depression, currently located to the west of the Fiji group, is moving southeast and is forecast to gradually intensify as it travels over open waters. FMS projections indicate TD11F will reach Category 2 strength before further deepening to a Category 3 system as it moves south of the country over the coming days. The latest model guidance keeps the cyclone’s core to the west of Viti Levu and steering it away from direct landfall, tracking further toward open ocean.
Although a direct hit on any main island is not anticipated under the present outlook, meteorologists emphasise the storm’s cloud bands and expanded wind field will still affect parts of Fiji. Heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas are likely in areas influenced by the system’s outer bands. Coastal communities, mariners and those in low-lying districts should be prepared for hazardous surf, localized flooding and disruptive gusts even with the centre passing offshore.
This is the latest development in a system first flagged last week near Vanuatu, when forecasters were monitoring a tropical low with a medium chance of cyclogenesis. At that time satellite imagery showed a gradually organising circulation; the new FMS track reflects continued consolidation and a south-easterly turn that will keep the strongest impacts away from Fiji’s main islands while allowing the storm to intensify over warm open waters.
Authorities are urging residents to stay alert and follow official updates from the Fiji Meteorological Service and emergency management agencies. Mariners should heed marine warnings and avoid unnecessary passages in the system’s projected path, and land-based communities are reminded to secure loose objects, check drainage and be ready to move if local advisories are issued.
FMS will continue to update its warnings and forecasts as the system develops and model guidance refines the track and intensity outlook. The public is advised to monitor FMS bulletins and local emergency channels for any changes that could affect coastal or low-lying areas.
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