The Fiji Meteorological Service (Fiji Met) has released an updated track map showing Tropical Disturbance TD11F is expected to pass to the west of Viti Levu between April 5 and April 7, with its closest approach forecasted around Tuesday. The agency warned the system is likely to intensify as it moves south of the islands, with models indicating it could reach Category 2 tropical cyclone strength while remaining over open waters.
Fiji Met's latest guidance places the low-pressure system currently to the north-west of the Fiji group, moving generally southward before turning more south-southeast. Although the centre is forecast to remain offshore, the disturbance’s cloud band and broad wind field are expected to produce heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas across parts of Fiji as it passes nearby. Coastal areas and mariners are most at risk from elevated seas and hazardous surf conditions accompanying the system.
The new track map represents the most specific forecast so far for TD11F, narrowing a window of potential impact to the early days of next week. Earlier monitoring of tropical lows in the region had hinted at systems tracking near Fiji, but the updated projection is the first to show a likely Category 2 intensification on the southward leg of TD11F’s path. Fiji Met emphasised that while the cyclone’s centre is predicted to remain offshore, the intensity forecast increases the potential for disruptive weather on the islands.
Fiji Met has advised the public to remain alert and to continue monitoring official updates as the situation develops. The agency will issue further advisories and, if necessary, warnings should the disturbance change course or strengthen closer to inhabited areas. Local authorities and emergency services typically use these advisories to consider whether to activate preparedness measures for vulnerable communities, particularly those in low-lying coastal zones.
Residents and businesses in affected areas are being reminded to secure loose items, check emergency kits, and heed any local instructions should warnings be issued. Fisherfolk and commercial operators at sea are also being urged to monitor marine forecasts closely and avoid non-essential voyages while TD11F approaches.
Forecasts for tropical systems can change as new observations and model runs become available; the current track keeps TD11F over open waters but places Fiji within the reach of its outer bands. Fiji Met’s updated track map is the latest development in ongoing monitoring of the South Pacific tropical region, and will underpin any further decisions on warnings and community preparedness over the coming days.
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