Tropical Depression TD10F has weakened and is now considered unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours, the latest forecast update shows. The system, which was located south of Fiji, was moving south-southeast at about 16 knots (roughly 30 km/h) at 6am today, and forecasters report a marked reduction in thunderstorm activity and overall organisation over the past six hours.
Meteorologists at the Fiji Meteorological Service say TD10F has moved into an environment of moderate to high vertical wind shear, a hostile factor that is expected to inhibit further strengthening. Although sea surface temperatures beneath the system remain relatively warm at around 28°C and upper-level outflow is favourable in places, a significant intrusion of dry air from the southwest is now suppressing convective cloud formation — a key ingredient for cyclone development.
Numerical weather prediction models continue to show the system tracking generally southward, with only slight re-intensification possible over the next 24 hours. However, the combination of increasing shear and dry-air entrainment keeps the overall chance of TD10F becoming a tropical cyclone in the short term at low to very low, according to the latest guidance. Authorities monitoring the disturbance said there is no immediate threat of cyclone formation at this stage.
This is a change in risk compared with earlier attention paid to nearby lows this season. In late January and February, forecasters had tracked other systems in the region with higher probabilities of intensifying and potential indirect effects on Fiji. The current update narrows the immediate concern: with TD10F weakening and tracking away to the south-southeast, direct impacts on the main islands are not expected in the next day.
Despite the reduced likelihood of cyclone formation, meteorological services stressed the need for continued monitoring. Tropical systems can evolve quickly if environmental factors shift; any reduction in shear or moister inflow could alter the forecast. Mariners and coastal communities are encouraged to keep an eye on official updates and marine warnings from the Fiji Meteorological Service and the National Weather Forecasting Centre in Nadi.
For now, residents and shipping interests can take some reassurance from the latest analysis: TD10F’s recent loss of organisation, the encroaching dry air and the higher wind shear environment all point away from rapid development. Forecasters will issue further advisories if the system shows renewed convective activity or a change in track or intensity.
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