China recorded its lowest birth rate on record in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of population decline, which poses a significant demographic challenge for the nation’s economy. The birth rate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, a decline from the previous low of 6.39 per 1,000 reported in 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
While there was a slight uptick in births in 2024, this increase appears to have been an anomaly rather than signaling a trend reversal, given the steady decline observed since 2016. The troubling demographic data aligns with the backdrop of China’s economic performance, which grew by 5% in 2025, consistent with the government’s annual goal of around 5%. This growth was bolstered by a significant surge in exports, which helped mitigate the impact of trade tensions with the United States and domestic consumption weaknesses.
Despite achieving a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year, the economic landscape showed signs of slowing down, particularly in the fourth quarter, with only a 4.5% growth recorded—this was the slowest quarterly expansion since the end of 2022. Officials emphasized the economic stability amidst challenging external and domestic conditions. Kang Yi, the chief of the statistics bureau, remarked on the country’s ability to achieve high-quality development despite these pressures.
However, the birth figures present a considerable setback for Beijing’s initiatives aimed at reversing the long-lasting effects of the former “one-child” policy, which sought to control population growth for decades. In 2025, the number of births totaled 7.92 million, significantly overshadowed by 11.31 million deaths, resulting in a net population decline of 3.39 million.
China’s overall population stands at 1.4 billion for 2025, still the second-largest globally, trailing only India. The persistent trend of deaths outpacing births highlights the urgency of addressing demographic issues, which could have long-term implications for the country’s economic and social fabric. Despite these challenges, there remains hope that policy adjustments and initiatives can encourage family growth in the future, ensuring a balanced demographic structure that supports sustainable economic development.
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