Papua New Guinea is facing a critical challenge with its rapidly expanding population, which is projected to reach 15 million by 2030. Research indicates that the country’s current infrastructure, health systems, and job markets are already struggling to keep up with the existing population of approximately 11 million, compounded by over 60,000 unplanned pregnancies each year.
Economics lecturer at the University of PNG, Kingtau Mambon, highlights the urgency of the situation in his report titled “Unwanted births and fertility in Papua New Guinea.” He points out that without intervention, PNG risks becoming increasingly dependent on donor support despite its rich natural resources, including gas, timber, and minerals.
The country’s challenging terrain has hindered the expansion of its road network, making it difficult to develop the agricultural sector and provide necessary resources such as energy to remote regions, which are essential for education, healthcare, and law enforcement.
Mambon categorizes the uncontrolled birth rates in PNG as a “ticking time bomb,” attributing the issue to four main factors: limited access to family planning methods, early marriage and teen pregnancies, educational disparities, and cultural norms favoring larger families for economic security. Notably, only 37% of women have access to contraceptives, which drops below 35% in rural areas. The prevalence of early childbearing is alarming, with 65 out of every 1,000 girls starting families before reaching 20, the highest rate in the Pacific region.
The lack of educational opportunities, particularly for girls, further exacerbates the problem. Women with higher education typically marry at an older age, leading to fewer children, while many girls do not progress to secondary education in PNG, limiting their options for family planning.
Mambon’s findings indicate that PNG is already experiencing overcrowded hospitals and schools, with only one doctor for every 40,000 patients and a teacher for every 60 students. This strain is further reflected in urban centers where graduates face a scarcity of job opportunities.
To address this population crisis, Mambon emphasizes the need for policy interventions that empower families to make informed decisions about childbearing. By enabling families to choose when to have children, he believes it will lead to better educational outcomes and improved health conditions for future generations, ultimately reducing environmental and economic pressures.
Mambon warns that without decisive action, PNG’s annual birth rate could soar beyond 370,000 by 2050, even under a conservative growth estimate. He advocates a dual approach of enhancing family planning services alongside investments in education and initiatives promoting later marriages. This strategy could help keep annual births below 350,000 as the country progresses towards the middle of the century.
As Papua New Guinea grapples with these demographic challenges, the need for comprehensive solutions to ensure a sustainable future for its growing population is more pronounced than ever. Implementing effective policies could provide immense benefits for families and contribute positively to the nation’s overall development.
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