The Fiji Meteorological Service has announced the onset of a La Niña event, anticipating a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. In their recent Fiji Ocean Outlook, the service cautioned that from February to April 2026, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to exceed normal levels throughout Fiji waters.
This rise in temperatures poses an increased risk of marine heat stress and coral bleaching, especially in the shallow reef areas. The outlook indicates a southward displacement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), which will likely fall within Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during this timeframe. This shift is predicted to significantly affect rainfall patterns and ocean conditions across the region.
Of particular concern is the coral bleaching forecast, currently rated at Alert Level 1 for areas along the Coral Coast and in the Northern, Central, and Eastern Divisions of Fiji. A more serious ‘Warning’ status applies to the additional regions of Fiji’s waters, signaling a heightened risk of thermal stress on coral reefs should elevated sea temperatures continue.
Furthermore, the Fiji Meteorological Service noted that sea level patterns are also changing. Below-normal sea levels are forecasted for most parts of the Fiji Group during the said months, while Rotuma is expected to experience above-normal sea levels.
Meteorologists emphasize that the combination of La Niña, rising sea temperatures, and altered ocean-atmosphere patterns necessitates vigilant monitoring, particularly for coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and local fisheries. This proactive approach can help mitigate the potential adverse impacts of these climatic changes, ultimately fostering resilience in both human and ecological systems.
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