The International Monetary Fund has revised its near-term outlook for Fiji, projecting economic growth to slow to about 2.5 percent in 2026 even as the economy remains on an overall expansion path. The update follows a mission to Fiji led by IMF official Alasdair Scott that held consultations with government officials and stakeholders in Nadi and Suva from March 16–27, the Fund said in a statement issued overnight in Washington.
The IMF noted that Fiji’s economy remained resilient through 2025, buoyed by strong tourism inflows, remittances and a degree of fiscal stimulus. “Economic activity remained resilient in 2025… This momentum has begun to ease into early 2026,” the Fund said, identifying early signs of moderation that underpin its lower growth projection for next year. The Fund also expects inflation to tick up to roughly 2.25 percent in 2026.
The slower-growth forecast broadly leaves Fiji on an expansionary path but is lower than recent years’ performance and slightly below the Reserve Bank of Fiji’s forecast of about 3 percent growth for the year. The IMF highlighted a combination of domestic and external factors weighing on the outlook: softer-than-expected tourism performance in early 2026 and rising global oil prices are already beginning to dent activity and add to inflationary pressures.
Beyond those immediate headwinds, the Fund warned of downside risks that could amplify the slowdown. These include fiscal financing pressures, the potential for higher global fuel costs, and tighter international financial conditions that could raise borrowing costs and complicate external financing. The IMF stressed that these risks make careful policy management essential to preserve macroeconomic stability.
To that end the IMF urged policymakers to balance near-term support for households with a medium-term strategy to rebuild fiscal buffers. The statement called for policies that address both short-term cost-of-living challenges and the need to strengthen public finances, noting that rebuilding buffers will be key to sustaining stability and supporting growth going forward. The Fund’s visit follows a period in which fiscal stimulus helped underpin the recovery; the new advice signals a shift toward consolidation and resilience-building as tourism normalises.
The mission’s assessment provides an external, forward-looking gauge for Fiji’s policymakers as they calibrate fiscal and monetary settings amid a shifting global backdrop. With tourism—a major pillar of the economy—showing signs of softness and global commodity prices volatile, the IMF’s recommendations underscore the priorities for the government in the coming months: protect vulnerable households, contain inflation, and shore up public finances to guard against further shocks.
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