Fiji’s Economic Outlook: Can Tourism Bounce Back?

Westpac Fiji has revised its growth forecast for the Fijian economy for 2025 downwards, highlighting significant challenges posed by global economic uncertainties and trade disruptions influenced by recent U.S. tariff measures. In its latest “Westpac Wave” Economic Update, the bank now anticipates a growth rate of just 2.7 percent, a notable decrease from its previous forecast of 3.4 percent.

The update underscores a troubling trend in Fiji’s tourism sector, which is a critical pillar of the economy. Recent data from the Fiji Bureau of Statistics revealed a 9.6 percent decline in visitor arrivals for February compared to the previous year, compounded by a staggering 30.1 percent drop from January 2025. March saw a slight recovery, with a 7.9 percent decline over the same month the previous year, but overall visitor numbers remain concerning.

Westpac has expressed particular alarm over the ongoing decrease in arrivals from New Zealand, which has seen a five-month decline likely linked to the country’s own economic recession. Additionally, visitor numbers from Australia have also dropped, creating a compounded effect on the Fijian tourism industry as uncertainties loom ahead with Australia’s impending federal elections.

The bank acknowledges that while the current decline presents a moment of difficulty, the underlying sentiment within the tourism sector holds potential for resilience. Westpac remains cautiously optimistic and has indicated that they are continuously monitoring international developments and their implications for Fiji’s domestic economy.

The report suggests that despite facing a tough economic landscape, there are signs that the tourism sector may still recover from these challenges in the long run, especially with possible scenarios that favor future growth.

In summary, while the forthcoming economic environment appears challenging, the possibility of a rebound remains, fueled by the potential for new tourist markets and travel opportunities, including emerging flight routes that could broaden Fiji’s tourism appeal.