ANZ Senior Pacific Economist Dr Kishti Sen has warned that unleaded petrol prices in Fiji are set to rise at the start of April, with a further jump possible by May as global crude oil prices surge. In his latest forecast Dr Sen said benchmark motor spirit prices in urban areas will likely increase by seven cents per litre on April 1, a change tied to a 7.2 percent month‑on‑month rise in Brent crude between January and February.
The April adjustment reflects the mechanics of Fiji’s regulated petroleum pricing system: the Fijian Competition and Consumer Commission (FCCC) bases each month’s price review on import costs from two months earlier, meaning the commission’s April review examines costs recorded in February. Dr Sen noted the FCCC administers retail petroleum product prices under the Competition and Consumer Commission Act 2010, controls retailer margins and passes through input‑cost changes after a strict monthly review; new prices are gazetted at the end of the month and take effect on the first of the following month.
What makes the outlook sharper is the further rally in crude seen through March. So far this month Brent has averaged about US$95.50 a barrel — 37.7 percent higher than February’s average — and Dr Sen is forecasting a March average close to US$97/bbl, roughly a 39 percent month‑on‑month rise. Because the FCCC’s pricing cycle has a lag, much of March’s increase would feed into the May review, he said.
Dr Sen calculated that while a 39 percent spike in Brent would, on historical pass‑through, typically lift unleaded prices by about 16.1 percent, he expects a smaller near‑term retail increase of around 7.6 percent — roughly 19 cents per litre — by May. That scenario would see retail petrol reach about $2.70 per litre by May, he estimated. The smaller immediate pass‑through reflects inventories and timing: refineries hold weeks of supply, some shipments now arriving may have been contracted before the recent disruption, and changes in refined product prices lag crude movements.
The FCCC’s monthly reviews rely on a range of inputs beyond Brent, including the Mean of Platts Singapore assessment (which itself reflects Brent and refiner margins), tanker charter rates and movements in the FJD/USD exchange rate between the review months. Dr Sen also pointed to persistent supply uncertainty — notably disruptions affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz — as a factor keeping crude prices elevated through March.
Dr Sen emphasised that the government could choose to alter the outcome by intervening, for example through reductions in petrol excise, but otherwise the regulated process will determine the timing and scale of any increases. Higher pump prices would translate into increased costs for transport, freight and businesses, adding upward pressure to inflation and household budgets if the projected rises materialise. The FCCC is expected to finalise and gazette the April price schedule at the end of March.
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