ANZ Pacific economist Kishti Sen has warned that rising tensions in the Middle East are likely to push up global oil prices and that Fijian motorists could face a roughly 25-cent per litre increase in petrol over the next two months. Sen said the immediate effect will be felt in higher fuel and gas costs, with petrol in urban areas potentially rising from the current $2.44 per litre to about $2.70 by 1 May 2026.
Sen explained why the rise may not show up at filling stations straightaway: Fiji’s fuel prices are adjusted monthly based on the cost of supplies imported the previous month, so some of the fuel currently onshore may have been contracted at lower prices. “So it is possible that some of the fuel that was brought into this country this month was probably contracted at a cheaper price. But by 1st of May 2026, you will see the full impact of the recent increases of price release we’ve seen in the oil market,” he said, reiterating his estimate of a 25-cent rise over the next two months.
Beyond pump prices, Sen warned higher crude and refined fuel costs could lift aviation fuel, with flow-on pressures likely to push up airfares — particularly on routes from key markets such as Australia. He noted that even if hostilities subside quickly, disruptions to shipments through strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz can take time to normalize, prolonging elevated prices.
The warning comes amid a multi-front escalation in the Middle East that has already driven spikes in international oil and gas markets. Sen cautioned that a wider or longer conflict could reproduce the inflationary ripple seen in 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when global oil topped US$100 a barrel. During that period petrol in Fiji peaked at $3.68 per litre, food prices rose about 6.4 percent, transport costs climbed roughly 20 percent and overall inflation exceeded 6 percent.
Pacific governments are watching closely. Earlier this month the Cook Islands government instructed officials to secure fuel and essential supplies as global energy prices and shipping costs rose, underscoring regional concerns about supply-chain vulnerability. In Fiji, the risk has renewed attention on long-term energy strategies: officials and energy companies have previously emphasised the need to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels by expanding hydropower, solar, battery storage and transmission investments — a transition Sen said must accelerate to shield Pacific economies from volatile global fuel markets.
For now, Sen urged calm and practical preparedness. He advised households to manage budgets carefully, rely where appropriate on remittances and support systems, and monitor official price updates that reflect monthly import costs. The ANZ economist’s projection provides the latest timeline for when Fijians are likely to feel the direct cost of recent oil-market moves, and signals renewed pressure on the cost of living should international tensions persist or deepen.
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