ANZ Senior Pacific Economist Dr Kishti Sen says recent and historical moves in global crude oil prices tend to feed into Fiji’s petrol market with a delay, and that the immediate impact on consumer inflation is likely to be more muted than headline oil moves suggest. Speaking as regional markets watch supply risks in the Middle East, Dr Sen used the 2022 oil shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to illustrate how crude spikes were transmitted slowly and unevenly into local pump prices.
Dr Sen pointed to Brent crude’s 19.5 percent jump in March 2022 as an example. The Fijian Competition and Consumer Commission’s April 2022 pricing review — which would have reflected much of that March rise — recorded only a nine percent increase in petrol prices. The largest retail jump that year arrived in July, when petrol rose 11.7 percent to $3.44 a litre, even though crude only rose about 5.7 percent that month. “That pattern shows a lagged and partial pass-through from crude to domestic fuel prices during supply shocks,” he said.
The ANZ economist also outlined the channels that determine how fuel movements hit household inflation. Transport accounts for 13.8 percent of Fiji’s Consumer Price Index, but official sub-category weightings that would isolate fuel’s exact contribution are not publicly available, he noted. That makes it difficult to quantify precisely how much a change in petrol prices will add to headline CPI, though the transport weighting means any sustained jump would be significant for cost‑of‑living pressures.
On current conditions, Dr Sen highlighted that average retail fuel in early 2026 ran at about $2.33 a litre, down from $2.57 in December 2025. Based on ANZ’s outlook, they expect fuel prices to ease from August 2026, in which case the direct contribution of fuel to consumer prices would be “fairly muted.” That forecast contrasts with earlier warnings from the Fijian Competition and Consumer Commission in March that global tensions could lift fuel and food prices given Fiji’s complete reliance on imports for oil products.
The economist said the expected pattern of pass-through reduces the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Fiji will respond to oil-driven price swings with tighter monetary policy. “Central banks cannot do much to shift the dial on inflation caused by supply disruptions,” Dr Sen said, adding that monetary policy is not the ideal tool to manage shock-driven price rises. Instead he pointed to fiscal policy as having greater scope to deliver targeted relief.
As a contingency, Dr Sen said the state could consider measures similar to those taken in 2022 — notably the temporary removal of a 20 cents-per-litre fuel excise — if crude prices remain high for longer than current forecasts. Such a step would aim to ease immediate pressure on motorists and household budgets, but would carry fiscal costs and would likely be deployed only if supply-driven price pressures prove persistent.
The comments add detail to the evolving policy conversation in Suva about how best to shield consumers from global energy volatility. With the Middle East situation continuing to create uncertainty in global oil markets, officials and economists say they will monitor crude price trends and domestic retail movements closely, weighing targeted fiscal options over broad monetary tightening.
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