There is a significant 70 percent chance that the years from 2025 to 2029 will experience temperature increases exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, as indicated by a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This 1.5C threshold is crucial, recognized internationally in the 2015 Paris Agreement where countries committed to limit global warming to this level.
WMO scientists stress that even if the average global temperature during 2025-2029 exceeds this threshold, it doesn’t automatically signify an infringement of the Paris Agreement, as temperature assessments should ideally focus on 20-year averages rather than shorter timeframes. Adam Scaife, a physicist at the WMO, emphasized that keeping the warming below this critical limit over extended periods will likely depend on unexpected natural climate variability, such as the occurrence of La Niña or a major volcanic eruption that can temporarily impact global temperatures.
While the implications of potentially surpassing this temperature threshold are alarming, recent findings also highlight the ongoing efforts to mitigate climate change. The WMO noted an 80 percent chance that at least one year in this upcoming period could surpass the record temperature set in 2024, and an 86 percent likelihood of experiencing a year exceeding the 1.5C mark. Scaife described the possibility of any year exceeding 2C above pre-industrial levels as “shocking” and indicative of the rapidly changing climate landscape.
Chris Hewitt, the WMO’s director of climate services, cautioned against fixating solely on whether the 1.5C threshold has been breached, underscoring the importance of minimizing warming as much as possible. He called for global collaboration and decisive actions to address the increasing climate challenges, especially with the upcoming COP30 climate talks in Brazil seen as a pivotal opportunity for substantial climate action.
The continued pursuit of renewable energy advancements, highlighted by a record increase in capacity reported in 2024, presents a hopeful avenue for nations to work collectively towards a sustainable future. This underscores the message that while the challenges are daunting, the global community possesses the potential for transformative changes through unity and innovation in the fight against climate change.
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