Members of Parliament from the deregistered FijiFirst who remain strictly independent may not have a chance of retaining their seats at the next general election. Former permanent secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office, Jioji Kotobalavu, stated that the chances of winning as an independent candidate were virtually zero, making it a waste of effort and resources.
Kotobalavu emphasized that to successfully retain their seats, these MPs must join a political party. He suggested that the best party to join would be one led by a charismatic leader capable of attracting a significant number of votes.
He explained that any prospective candidate standing in the next general elections with a strong cause would have a better chance of winning if they were part of a political party. The 5 percent threshold requirement for election success, he noted, rendered the chances for independent candidates nearly impossible.
Kotobalavu pointed out that in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, this threshold ranged between 23,000 and 27,000 votes. No independent candidate has ever met this requirement to win a seat in Parliament, contributing to why many political parties in the 2022 General Election also failed to secure any seats.
He argued for the need to establish more individual and group representatives within regional constituencies so that the electorate would better know their MPs. Under the current 2013 Constitution, there is only one national constituency, leading to a disconnect between MPs and their constituents.
Kotobalavu reiterated that if any of the 26 former FijiFirst MPs wished to retain their seats in the 2026 Parliament, their prospects of doing so as independents were negligible. Joining a political party with a prominent leader was essential for their success. He concluded that those choosing to remain strictly independent had virtually no chance of retaining their seats in the next general election.