Concerns regarding China’s influence over Pacific democracies have surged in the United States as Washington strengthens its strategic ties with three Micronesian nations. This development arises from fears about China’s expanding political, economic, and security footprint in the region.
Pacific security expert Robert Underwood, who is also the chairman of the Pacific Center for Island Security and a former U.S. congressional delegate from Guam, indicates that while Washington’s recent warnings about China reflect ongoing apprehensions, they still do not present a cohesive economic strategy for the region. “There is no U.S. policy to economically invest in the COFA states,” Underwood stated, criticizing the approach as lacking creativity and relying solely on government-to-government assistance.
Edward Camacho, the special assistant for military affairs for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, emphasized the distinction between the Chinese people and the methods of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for enhancing their influence in smaller nations. “China and the Chinese people are generally not a threat at all,” he mentioned, pointing out that the CCP, alongside PLA personnel posing as diplomats and business representatives, is forming misleading agreements with leaders in the Pacific.
The recent U.S. warnings were underscored by testimony from Angel Demapan, deputy assistant secretary for insular and international affairs at the U.S. Department of the Interior. He mentioned that China is conducting a persistent influence campaign aimed at undermining democratic institutions and shifting political alignments in the Pacific. According to Demapan, the Compact of Free Association (COFA) agreements are now more crucial than ever as Beijing seeks to manipulate political landscapes.
“The PRC has deployed an extensive influence operation aimed at corroding, corrupting, and coercing democracies,” Demapan expressed before the U.S. House Committee on Natural Resources. In response to allegations regarding its influence, China has denied any wrongdoing, characterizing its collaborations with Pacific Island nations as transparent and not intended to target other parties.
The United States maintains compacts with Palau, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia—known collectively as the freely associated states—serving as the backbone of U.S. military and strategic engagement in the North Pacific. Under COFA, the U.S. commits to providing economic assistance while ensuring exclusive military access to significant portions of the Pacific, which allows citizens of these nations to live, work, and study in the United States without visa restrictions.
Representative Kimberlyn King-Hinds from the Northern Mariana Islands highlighted that the agreements should be viewed as a strategic arrangement rather than mere foreign aid. “The COFA agreement was never designed as foreign aid in the traditional sense,” she stated, clarifying that the U.S. gains critical defense and security rights in exchange for supporting the economic stability and self-governance of these nations.
After a prolonged period of funding uncertainty, the U.S. Congress passed the Compact of Free Association Amendments Act in 2024, securing $6.5 billion in economic assistance over the next two decades. Demapan noted that approximately $1.5 billion has already been allocated under the renewed agreements, with oversight managed by the Department of the Interior’s Office of Insular Affairs.
He also highlighted depopulation caused by limited economic opportunities and access to services as a significant long-term issue facing the freely associated states. The COFA agreement, Demapan stressed, provides an essential framework for boosting these economies, enhancing healthcare, educational outcomes, and improving critical infrastructure. Investments amounting to around $750 million have already been directed to schools, healthcare facilities, ports, and power systems since the new agreements came into effect.
The ongoing commitment from the U.S. to these nations, paired with a focused strategy to address existing challenges, signals a continued effort to cultivate resilience and stability in the Pacific, contributing positively to the region’s future.
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