Researchers from the University of Auckland are conducting a study to estimate the potential impact of cyclones and severe weather on individual hospitals in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Tonga. By applying climate models integrated with tropical cyclone models, the study aims to project risks up until the year 2100 with the aid of machine learning.
For instance, a decade ago, Niu’ui Hospital in the northeast region of the Tongan islands of Ha’apai was severely damaged by Cyclone Ian, resulting in its relocation to a less vulnerable site. The climate scientist leading the project, Dr. Michelle McCrystall, emphasizes that while Pacific Island nations contribute minimally to global warming emissions, they are disproportionately affected by its consequences.
As these nations lack unlimited resources to rebuild following disasters, the researchers hope their projections will assist in future planning. By identifying high-risk areas, losses can potentially be reduced. The study, made possible by a $139,000 grant from Climate Change AI, an international nonprofit organization, is expected to conclude in 2024.
Dr. McCrystall and her team aim to create accessible and practical data for approximately 30 hospital sites which will be published online. The team actively encourages collaboration with local health facilities to help provide vital information. Collaborators for the project include Dr. Berlin Kafoa, the director of the public health division of the international organization, Pacific Communities. Pacific Island communities are particularly susceptible to climate change effects due to their coastal and low-lying settlements.