Tropical Disturbance TD11F Near Vanuatu Not Expected to Develop into Cyclone in 24 Hours, Fiji Monitors

The Fiji Meteorological Service says a tropical disturbance currently near Vanuatu is unlikely to intensify into a cyclone over the next 24 hours, easing immediate concern for Fiji amid close monitoring of the system.

Designated Tropical Disturbance TD11F, forecasters said in their latest bulletin, remains slow-moving and weak. Satellite observations show “deep convection remains to the east and southeast of the supposed low‑level circulation centre,” the Fiji Met Service noted, signalling an ill‑defined core and limited thunderstorm activity near the centre — a sign the system is not consolidating rapidly.

Environmentally, TD11F is situated in a mixed setting. The disturbance is in a low wind‑shear pocket and over relatively warm water, with sea surface temperatures around 29°C — conditions that can favour development. However, the weather office warned that other factors are inhibiting intensification. “Dry air intrusion from the southwest of the system and strong wind shear from the south can hinder further development,” the bulletin said, citing the competing influences that are keeping the disturbance weak.

Global forecast models consulted by the Fiji Met Service generally agree on a subdued future for TD11F. Model guidance indicates the system is expected to track southwards with little strengthening, and the agency assessed that “the potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone is very low in the next 24 hours.” Authorities said they will continue surveillance of the disturbance but do not expect significant intensification at this stage.

The assessment represents a downgrade from earlier, more cautious appraisals. A prior report on the system described a medium likelihood of cyclone formation within 24 hours and noted some organizing signs in the low‑level circulation, raising the prospect of a track closer to Fiji later in the week. The new analysis, however, points to inhibiting dry air and south‑westerly shear as decisive in suppressing development and shifting model tracks southward.

While the immediate threat to Fiji appears reduced, the Fiji Met Service’s continued monitoring reflects the inherently changeable nature of tropical disturbances in the region. Small shifts in shear, moisture or steering currents can alter a system’s prospects, and forecasters will update warnings if conditions change. For now, communities and maritime interests are being kept informed but no significant intensification is anticipated.