The growth of the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme has stagnated, with the number of PALM workers in Australia fluctuating in recent years. The total number of PALM workers reached 26,185 in April 2022, increased to 34,230 by June 2024, and slightly reduced to 32,365 in November 2025. Despite the overall headcount, there remains significant turnover among the ten countries sending workers to Australia, consisting of nine Pacific Island nations along with Timor-Leste.

A notable trend is the diversification of worker sources. In April 2022, Vanuatu dominated the scheme, providing one-third of all PALM workers. However, as of November 2025, Vanuatu has seen its share decrease to just 22%, with Timor-Leste emerging as the second-largest provider. The combined contribution of the top two countries has dropped from 56% in early 2022 to just 38%. While the primary contributors, Vanuatu, Tonga, and Samoa, have reduced their collective numbers, other nations like Fiji, the Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste have stepped up, each contributing approximately 5,000 workers.

The balance between long-term and short-term workers has shifted as well. Workers on long-term contracts, which last up to four years, now represent about 53% of the total PALM workforce, up from 27% in April 2022. This increase in long-term employment reflects an improvement in the distribution of workers across sending countries, mitigating previous disparities.

The positive developments seen in worker contributions from various Pacific nations indicate a healthy diversification within the PALM scheme. Despite some countries experiencing a decline in numbers, those looking to expand have successfully increased their involvement, although Papua New Guinea still struggles to catch up.

However, it appears that the pace of diversification may have peaked, as the overall inequality in worker distribution across sending countries has stabilized. This stabilization poses challenges for those nations eager to boost their PALM numbers, specifically the Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and potentially others like Kiribati and Fiji.

For the Australian government to rekindle overall growth in the PALM program, targeted reforms will be necessary. Employers advocate for a relaxation of regulatory measures, which might be challenging to achieve. A more immediately beneficial adjustment could involve inviting new sectors into the long-term PALM scheme and removing selective postcode restrictions that limit where PALM workers can be employed.

Additionally, eliminating incentives for backpackers, particularly in farm work, could serve as a catalyst for PALM growth. Although the government initiated a review of the backpacker visa, there has not been conclusive action to date.

In conclusion, while the trend of diversification has led to positive outcomes for certain nations participating in the PALM scheme, the future expansion of the program relies on effective reforms. Without these measures, some Pacific countries may find their aspirations for increasing PALM numbers unmet, highlighting the urgent need for policy adjustments to support worker mobility and meet industry demands in Australia.


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