The Fiji Meteorological Service is keeping a close watch on Tropical Disturbance TD01F as it progresses slowly, with significant convection noted over what appears to be its low-level circulation center. The current conditions around TD01F include low to moderate wind shear, favorable upper-level divergence, and warm sea surface temperatures hovering around 28°C, all of which typically support initial development of tropical systems.
However, forecasts from global weather models suggest that TD01F will shift southeast in the coming 48 hours. This trajectory will take the disturbance into cooler waters and an area characterized by stronger wind shear, which are less conducive to development. As this shift occurs, TD01F is anticipated to evolve into a subtropical system.
Due to these changing conditions, the likelihood of TD01F developing into a tropical cyclone is assessed as low, with expectations that this probability will diminish to very low beyond the next couple of days.
In essence, while initial conditions might have appeared promising for the development of a tropical cyclone, the trajectory and evolving environmental factors indicate a less favorable outcome. As nature continues to change, monitoring efforts remain crucial to inform and protect communities in affected areas.
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