Pacific tourism faces a growing threat from the unfolding crisis in Iran, with Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) chairman Peter Semone warning on Tuesday that the region is “completely held hostage” by developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking at a panel on Global and Regional Tourism Trends and Data during the 2026 South Pacific Tourism Organisation (SPTO) Industry Day in Nadi, Semone described his outlook as bleak and urged the industry to brace for sharp cost and accessibility impacts if tensions persist.
“The Iranians are going to control the Strait of Hormuz as much as they can,” Semone told delegates, arguing that any attempt to choke gas and oil flows through the narrow waterway would quickly ripple through global fuel markets. He said he had read a recent Economist report that suggested oil prices could spike to as much as US$200 a barrel — a jump he said would make aviation “exorbitant.” “If that happens there is an issue of accessibility. You won’t be able to fly over that airspace so that will add additional flying time, plus the additional fuel costs,” he added.
Semone warned those twin pressures — longer routings to avoid dangerous airspace and much higher fuel bills — could push airfares up and shrink the frequency of long-haul services that connect the Pacific to source markets. For island economies that rely heavily on international arrivals, reduced seat capacity and more expensive flights would hit visitor numbers, length of stay and the viability of tourism businesses at a time when the sector is still recovering from recent global shocks.
At the SPTO event, which drew industry leaders and data analysts to discuss recovery trends and risk management for the Pacific, Semone framed the situation as more than a temporary price shock. “I think the whole tourism industry globally — and even more so in places like the Pacific — is completely held hostage by what’s happening,” he said, later adding, “So unfortunately, we are in a pretty bad situation and all of us are victims to that and the Pacific even more so than other regions. So, I’m not actually optimistic.”
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global energy shipments, and disruptions there have outsized effects on crude and refined fuel prices. Semone’s comments underscore industry anxieties that geopolitical risk in the Middle East could translate into immediate operational and financial pressures for carriers and tourism operators across the Pacific — from longer flight times and higher fuel surcharges to route cancellations and capacity cuts.
Semone urged for hope that a diplomatic or military resolution might ease the pressure, but his tone at the Nadi panel was one of urgency: the Pacific’s geographic remoteness and dependence on air connectivity make it especially vulnerable to any sustained rise in aviation operating costs. The latest development places pressure on regional planners, airlines and governments to accelerate contingency planning, monitor fuel and route risk closely, and consider measures to protect fragile tourism-dependent economies should the crisis escalate.
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