Papua New Guinea (PNG) has celebrated a significant achievement in its agricultural exports in 2024, with cocoa revenues reaching PGK1.233 billion, surpassing coffee’s PGK989 million for the first time in history. This remarkable development showcases the evolving landscape of the country’s crop exports. However, the sustainability of cocoa’s newfound status may be questionable, as its supply is constrained by historically low crop yields that cannot be increased rapidly.
In terms of coffee, a rebound is anticipated after a disappointing volume last year. Coffee yields in PNG typically alternate between periods of high and low production, and recent global coffee price increases—largely due to detrimental weather conditions in Brazil—could help coffee regain its preeminence.
Looking forward to 2025, projections indicate a potential revenue turnaround with coffee expected to generate PGK1.58 billion while cocoa is anticipated to bring in PGK1.363 billion. The combined revenue from both crops is expected to exceed PGK3 billion, significantly surpassing last year’s figure of PGK2.222 billion.
The global cocoa market, meanwhile, has experienced a decline in production, notably by 13.1%, due to droughts and diseases impacting leading producers like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Initially, this resulted in a surge in cocoa prices; however, following recent rains in West Africa and decreased European demand, prices have slightly receded. For 2025, average cocoa prices are projected at approximately USD8,000 per ton.
Conversely, coffee demand remains strong, with projections for prices to average USD2.95 per pound in 2025—the highest annual average seen. Coffee export volumes are also on the rise, with estimations pointing to over one million bags slated for export.
Despite the resilience of the cocoa market, PNG’s ability to expand its cocoa export capacity is challenged as many farmers have transitioned to more lucrative balsa wood plantations over the past decade. Nevertheless, the high prices in the cocoa market are incentivizing farmers to reinvest in cocoa production, which may result in a modest increase to 42,000 tons by 2025.
The competitive dynamics within PNG’s cocoa and coffee sectors underscore the importance of supporting local farmers through targeted initiatives and investments in sustainable agricultural practices. This approach can stimulate economic growth and sustainability in both industries.
Overall, while there are challenges ahead for both the cocoa and coffee markets, the outlook remains optimistic as PNG adapts to price fluctuations and evolving consumer demands, demonstrating resilience in its agricultural export sector.
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