National Rally bets on symbolic wins in France’s municipal vote, Marseille in focus

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French voters are heading to the polls on Sunday in municipal elections that are being watched as an early barometer of political strength ahead of the presidential campaign. Voting opens at 8 a.m. (0700 GMT) and closes at 8 p.m., with a second round scheduled for March 22 in towns and cities where no list takes more than 50% of the first-round vote. The outcomes across nearly 35,000 municipalities — from major cities to tiny villages — could shape momentum for both the far-right National Rally (RN) and France’s fractured mainstream parties.

What is new in this round is the scale and reach of RN candidacies and the immediate tests they present. The party has fielded candidates in several hundred municipalities and is not expecting a nationwide rout, but it hopes to convert growing visibility into a handful of symbolic victories that would boost its presidential prospects. Security has emerged as the dominant issue in polls ahead of the vote, aligning with the RN’s law-and-order messaging and giving the party fertile ground in many local contests.

One of the most closely watched races is in Marseille, where RN candidate Franck Allisio is tied in first-round polls with incumbent Socialist mayor Benoit Payan — an outcome that would have been unthinkable for the RN in France’s second-largest city until recently. “If the people of Marseille make a brave choice … it will embolden and enlighten the French on the choice they will make next year,” Allisio told Reuters, underlining how a breakthrough there would be read as a national signal.

The RN is also targeting other larger urban centres. Toulon, a southern city of about 180,000 inhabitants, is among the key battlegrounds where the party believes it can unseat the centre-right or left and claim a high-profile mayoralty. On the Riviera, RN hopes and local dynamics could collide in Menton, where a candidate backed by centrist parties is in the fight — illustrating how traditional alliances are being tested and recalibrated.

A pivotal feature of the municipal contest will be the alliances formed between the two rounds. For decades, mainstream parties in France have largely observed a taboo against partnering with the far right, but that convention is under strain. Some centre-right forces are reported to be tempted by tactical arrangements with RN lists, while left-of-centre parties face their own dilemmas about whether to forge unity pacts with hard-left formations such as La France Insoumise to defend urban strongholds won in 2020.

Local incumbents connected to the RN are already pointing to the stakes. Louis Aliot, the RN mayor of Perpignan, said supporters “want to turn the page,” framing municipal gains as part of a broader national shift. For the Socialists and Greens, whose coalition did well in many cities in 2020, the challenge is to hold Paris and other prize cities such as Nantes, Lyon and Strasbourg in the face of persistent national weaknesses. Whatever the immediate results on March 10 and in the March 22 run-offs, political analysts say the municipal ballot will be parsed for lessons on voter mood and alliance strategies as France heads deeper into the presidential campaign.