The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that the La Niña weather event, which has notably influenced global weather patterns since its onset in December, is expected to be short-lived. La Niña is characterized by cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures, affecting weather conditions worldwide. According to the latest forecasts, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to revert to average levels soon.
The WMO projects a 60 percent likelihood that conditions will return to an ENSO-neutral temperature range between March and May 2025, with this probability increasing to 70 percent during April-June 2025. ENSO-neutral refers to a state where the ocean temperature is neither exceptionally warm (El Niño) nor cool (La Niña). The likelihood of an El Niño developing during this timeframe is considered low by the agency.
Celeste Saulo, the Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasized the importance of accurate forecasts related to La Niña and El Niño for enabling effective early warnings and proactive measures. These forecasts have historically saved thousands of lives and resulted in significant economic benefits for sectors like agriculture, energy, and transportation.
Historically, La Niña has brought rainfall and flooding to some regions and led to drought conditions in others, often providing opposite climatic effects to El Niño. For example, while Australia suffers drought during El Niño, La Niña typically brings increased rainfall. Such dynamics are crucial for regional planning and disaster preparedness.
Notably, this La Niña phenomenon arises amid ongoing human-induced climate change, which exacerbates extreme weather. For instance, January 2025 was recorded as the hottest January ever, with temperatures significantly above pre-industrial averages, underscoring the intricate relationship between natural climatic events and anthropogenic influences.
WMO also continually monitors global seasonal climate patterns through its Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which provide extensive climate forecasts based on various critical elements beyond ENSO.
As we look to the upcoming seasons, the WMO anticipates that, despite the current La Niña conditions, most maritime regions will experience warmer than average temperatures, impacting nearly all land areas globally. This presents both challenges and opportunities for climate resilience and adaptation.
Continued adherence to global climate commitments and innovations in science can provide hope for mitigating adverse weather impacts brought about by the interaction between natural events and climate change.
Leave a comment