The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the current La Niña weather phenomenon, which has been affecting global weather patterns since December, is expected to last only for a short duration. This event, characterized by cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, influences weather variability worldwide. Recent forecasts indicate that these cooler sea surface temperatures are likely to return to average levels soon.
The WMO estimates a 60 percent chance that conditions will shift to an ENSO-neutral state—a term describing ocean temperatures that are neither excessively warm nor cool—between March and May 2025. This likelihood rises to 70 percent during the April-June period of the same year. The chance of transitioning to an El Niño situation within this timeframe remains low.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, highlighted the critical nature of these forecasts for facilitating effective early warnings and proactive strategies. Historically, timely and accurate forecasting linked to both La Niña and El Niño has saved countless lives and delivered economic benefits across various sectors, such as agriculture, energy, and transportation.
La Niña typically causes contrasting weather effects relative to El Niño, often leading to rainfall and flooding in some regions while creating drought conditions in others. For instance, as Australia experiences drought during El Niño episodes, La Niña tends to bring increased rainfall to the region. Understanding these dynamics is essential for effective regional planning and disaster preparedness.
This current La Niña event occurs against the backdrop of ongoing climate change, which intensifies extreme weather patterns. January 2025 marked the hottest January on record, highlighting the profound influence human-induced climate change has on both natural weather events and global temperatures.
The WMO remains vigilant in tracking global seasonal climate patterns via its Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), offering detailed forecasts that consider a myriad of factors beyond ENSO.
Looking ahead, the WMO anticipates that, even with La Niña conditions, many maritime regions will face warmer-than-average temperatures, affecting nearly all land areas worldwide. This scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for enhancing climate resilience and adaptation.
In light of these developments, a commitment to global climate goals and scientific innovations may offer promising pathways for mitigating adverse weather impacts linked to the interplay of natural climatic events and anthropogenic influences.
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