Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has indicated a significant decrease of 28.1 percent in the number of Fijians migrating to Australia. Economists from ANZ, Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny, analyzed this trend and suggested that it may ultimately help replenish Fiji’s population, which has been adversely affected by the exodus of workers during the post-COVID-19 period. They expect this shift could positively influence Fiji’s economic activity over the next year.
The concept of “net overseas migration” refers to the balance of population change through immigration and emigration. This net loss of population has been detrimental to Fiji’s growth since 1966, with pandemic-related restrictions prompting a sharp increase in emigration, peaking at nearly 20,000 people in the year ending June 2023—well above the pre-pandemic average of 5,000.
Australia and New Zealand have historically been favored as destinations for Fijian migrants, encompassing 90 percent of the total migration figures. However, tightening migration policies in both countries seem to have contributed to the recent decline in Fijian migration, which fell to 5,960 in the year leading up to June 2024.
This decrease follows a significant spike in migration rates in the years preceding this decline. The ABS reported that long-term departures from Fiji to Australia decreased by 23.1 percent, while the number of long-term arrivals into Fiji rose by 37.2 percent, resulting in a net outflow of 5,960 people.
Looking ahead, the economists anticipate that while long-term work departures may continue to decline, programs such as the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme could ensure a steady flow of workers. Additionally, a decrease in student migration may be expected, although students returning to Fiji after their studies could enhance long-term arrivals starting in 2025.
The economists project that Fiji will start to see the benefits of net overseas migration positively impacting its population from 2026 onwards. This anticipated growth is expected to boost domestic consumption, increase investments in housing and infrastructure, and supply the necessary workforce to enhance economic output.
In summary, while the current statistics reflect a downturn in Fijian migration to Australia, the expected resurgence in net migration may lead to positive economic developments for Fiji in the coming years. The future looks promising as Fiji prepares for potential long-term demographic and economic growth.
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