Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates a significant 28.1 percent decline in the number of Fijians moving to Australia. ANZ senior economists Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny point out that this trend, which shows a decrease in migration, is expected to positively impact Fiji’s population dynamics and economic activities.
The concept of “net overseas migration” reflects the changes in population due to immigration and emigration. For Fiji, a net loss of population has been evident since 1966, contributing to its slow population growth. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a notable exodus, with nearly 20,000 Fijians leaving for job opportunities abroad in the year ending June 2023, compared to an average of approximately 5,000 annually before the pandemic.
Notably, Australia and New Zealand have been primary destinations for Fijians, together making up 90 percent of Fiji’s outbound migration. However, recent tightening of migration policies in these countries has led to a decrease in Fijian migration, as confirmed by the ABS statistics, which recorded that only 5,960 Fijians migrated to Australia in the year up to June 2024. This figure follows an unprecedented surge in 2021-22, when migration numbers more than tripled.
Long-term departures from Fiji have decreased by 23.1 percent, while long-term arrivals into Fiji have increased by 37.2 percent. This has resulted in a net outflow of 5,960 people from Fiji.
Looking ahead, the economists expect that while long-term work departures may continue to decline, programs like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) will sustain some migration flow. The trend of students departing for studies is also anticipated to slow down, but there will be an influx of students returning to Fiji after completing their studies, which could enhance the country’s population growth from 2026 onwards.
This potential population growth is projected to uplift domestic consumption and stimulate investments in housing and infrastructure, ultimately contributing to Fiji’s overall economic development.
In conclusion, while the immediate implications of reduced migration may seem concerning, the long-term outlook suggests that Fiji could experience a revitalization of its workforce and economic activity in the coming years, thanks to programmatic support and the return of educated individuals. This transformation could lead to a brighter future for Fiji’s economy and community.
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