Fiji is facing a daunting economic challenge, projected to lose over 6.5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050 due to the severe impacts of tropical cyclones and flooding. This forecast is detailed in the country’s newly released National Anticipatory Action Framework for Tropical Cyclones 2025–2027, which emphasizes Fiji’s vulnerability to extreme weather events.
The report reveals that Fiji is among the most cyclone-prone nations globally, with over 33 tropical cyclones of Category 1 or higher passing within 10 kilometers of its shores since 1969. Alarmingly, 16 of these cyclones made landfall, causing considerable destruction. Past cyclones have wreaked havoc on the nation’s infrastructure, disrupted its economy, displaced thousands, and led to tragically high rates of humanitarian distress and loss of life.
In addition to the destructive winds, cyclones in Fiji often bring intense rainfall, leading to flash floods and storm surges that exacerbate the country’s vulnerability. Significant storms in recent history include Cyclone Winston in 2016, the strongest cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, and Cyclone Yasa and Cyclone Harold, both impactful events of 2020. The international community has responded by mobilizing assistance, including funds from the Central Emergency Response Fund, to aid recovery efforts.
The framework points out that even cyclones with relatively lower wind speeds can produce substantial damage. Cyclone Cody in 2022, categorized as a Category 1 system, affected approximately 70,000 individuals due to extreme rainfall averaging over 200 millimeters, resulting in extensive flooding across the nation.
Climate change is underscored as a critical factor in heightening Fiji’s risk. The rising ocean temperatures contribute to more intense and destructive cyclones, while future forecasts predict stronger storm surges, more extreme rainfall, and rising sea levels. This precarious situation is compounded by findings from Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions, which suggest that the economic fallout from tropical cyclones and floods could push an additional 25 percent of the population into poverty yearly by 2050.
Despite significant investments by the government in disaster preparedness and resilience, the framework concludes that Fiji remains at a high risk of ongoing loss and damage from future tropical cyclones. This calls for continued international support and local adaptation strategies to mitigate the impending challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather events. By reinforcing its resilience, Fiji can strive to protect its communities and economy against the looming threats of nature.
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