Stabilising the disrupted global supply chain is likely to take months — and possibly up to a year — former deputy prime minister and finance minister Professor Biman Prasad warned on Wednesday, as he outlined the knock-on effects for energy markets and Fiji’s fiscal position.
“To get the production, the supply back on track is going to take a long time,” Prof Prasad told reporters, cautioning that prolonged recovery periods are “typical during major global disruptions.” He said restoring output and flows of goods will depend on how global conditions evolve and could require “six months, even a year, depending on what happens.” The warning underscores expectations that businesses and governments should factor an extended period of constrained supply into planning and budgets.
Prasad also highlighted sustained and rising global demand for energy and fuel as a complicating factor. “There will be cases where countries will try and build up their own reserves. Fuel companies will look at the cost, the price,” he said, arguing that demand pressures are likely to persist and could intensify as the current crisis unfolds. That view points to continued volatility in fuel markets and potential pressure on transport and import costs for island nations such as Fiji.
Turning to domestic finances, Prof Prasad said the government’s fiscal position has strengthened in recent years, providing some buffer to manage emerging shocks. He noted the debt-to-GDP ratio has been reduced from around 90 percent to roughly 77–78 percent over the past three years. Improvements in GDP growth and government revenue, he added, have created “some fiscal capacity” to respond to challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
His remarks echoed earlier international concerns: when the current government took office the International Monetary Fund had flagged limited fiscal space. Prasad suggested those earlier constraints have eased, saying the country’s economic fundamentals were “very strong” up until late last year when the latest global disruptions emerged.
The assessment comes as Fiji and other Pacific economies continue to feel the ripple effects of supply-chain stresses and energy-market volatility. Sectors that rely on timely imports — from aviation to retail and construction — have already reported operational strains in recent months, and prolonged supply constraints would complicate recovery efforts. For Fiji, higher and unpredictable fuel prices would also weigh on transport costs and inflation, testing the fiscal breathing room Prasad says has been built.
Prasad’s timeline for recovery — measured in months rather than weeks — signals that authorities and businesses should prepare for an extended adjustment period rather than a rapid rebound. How long production and supply chains remain constrained will shape policy choices on subsidies, strategic reserves and targeted support measures, as well as private-sector decisions on inventory and pricing.
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