Fiji’s population is forecast to stay below one million for at least the next decade, according to the Fiji Bureau of Statistics. Chief Executive Kemueli Naiqama cited a mix of demographic and social factors slowing growth, including falling birth rates, rising deaths from non-communicable diseases, and, most notably, continued migration.
“People are moving, there are more people going for greener pastures, not only through the PALM scheme,” Naiqama said, highlighting several pathways drawing Fijians overseas—caregiving roles in the United States, sporting contracts in Australia, New Zealand and across the Eurozone, and other work-related programs.
Naiqama pointed to a pronounced drop in birth rates. Previously, Fiji averaged about 20,000 births annually; now that figure has declined to around 17,000 to 18,000 per year. Mortality rates have risen, particularly among younger and middle-aged Fijians, due to the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. He also noted that the balance between the iTaukei and Indo-Fijian populations has shifted over time in response to health crises and political events.
Looking ahead, projections indicate Fiji’s population will not reach the one-million mark until 2035. Naiqama stressed that economic stability will be crucial to retaining citizens at home, noting, “If the country is stable, people will stay.”
Context from recent migration analyses shows a nuanced picture. Analysts have highlighted that migration to Australia and New Zealand—long the primary destinations for Fiji’s outbound migrants—has begun to ease as those countries tighten visa rules and pathways to permanent residency. While the wave of departures was sizable in the pandemic period, observers have stressed that it may be temporary. They forecast a potential shift toward positive net migration by around 2026, driven in part by the return of students after overseas study and continued, though moderated, use of employment schemes like PALM.
Recent statistics from Australia reinforce this shift. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a substantial drop in Fijian migration to Australia, down 28.1 percent to 5,960 people in the year ending June 2024, following a pandemic-era surge. Long-term departures from Fiji have eased, while long-term arrivals back into Fiji have risen, creating a net outflow that is expected to lessen over time as migration patterns rebalance. Analysts predict that the return of students and the ongoing PALM program could help Fiji’s population edge upward from 2025 into 2026, contributing to domestic demand, housing and infrastructure development, and a more robust economy.
Overall, Fiji faces a period of slower natural growth compounded by outward migration, but the evolving migration landscape and programmatic supports offer a cautiously optimistic pathway. If stability and opportunity persist, returning workers and students, together with sustained employment programs, could help Fiji’s population growth resume its uptick in the latter part of the decade.
Possible value-added notes:
– Policy implications: Continued focus on stable governance, economic opportunities, healthcare improvements to curb NCD mortality, and family-friendly policies could bolster retention.
– Economic linkage: A modest rebound in net migration could bolster domestic consumption, housing markets, and infrastructure investment as returning residents re-enter the economy.
– Positive takeaway: The combination of policy stability, targeted programs, and the return of educated workers presents a hopeful outlook for Fiji’s demographic and economic trajectory over the next few years.
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