Fiji is set to face above-average rainfall and warmer temperatures in the coming months as a weak La Niña continues to impact regional weather patterns. According to the Fiji Climate Outlook for February to July 2026, a weak La Niña remains present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, although most global climate models suggest a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions imminently, expected between February and April 2026.
For the month of February 2026, above-normal rainfall is anticipated across the Fiji Group, although the forecast for Rotuma is less certain, with predictions showing equal chances for below-normal, normal, or above-normal rainfall. The outlook for the February to April period suggests that most of the country will experience normal to above-normal rainfall, with a similar trend projected from May to July 2026. However, Rotuma may have continued mixed probabilities regarding its rainfall.
The outlook also warns that Fiji could see one to two tropical cyclones during this tropical cyclone season, with the potential for tropical disturbances to elevate rainfall levels significantly. In terms of temperature, both maximum and minimum readings are expected to be higher than normal throughout February 2026, a trend likely to carry through the next few months.
While ENSO-neutral conditions generally lead to average rainfall for Fiji, meteorologists note the possibility of significant short-term weather variations, especially during the wet season, as local weather systems can influence overall patterns.
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