A weak La Niña pattern is forecasted to persist in influencing the weather in Fiji through early 2026, resulting in wetter-than-average conditions for much of the country, according to the Fiji Meteorological Service.
The service reported that a weak La Niña event is currently active in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with most global climate models anticipating its continuation until early 2026 before transitioning back to neutral conditions. As a result, January is expected to bring above-normal rainfall across the Western and Central divisions, while the Northern and Eastern divisions, along with Rotuma, can expect normal to above-normal rainfall.
From January to March, forecasts indicate above-normal rainfall for most regions within the Fiji Group, with Rotuma once again anticipated to receive normal to above-normal precipitation. However, as the outlook progresses into April through June, there is less certainty in predictions, with “almost equal chances of below normal, normal, and above normal rainfall” anticipated, suggesting possible shifts due to varying regional weather patterns.
Additionally, the outlook points to an increased risk of tropical systems, with Fiji likely to encounter one to two tropical cyclones this season. Even minor developments of tropical disturbances or depressions could lead to above-normal rainfall during this period, the service cautioned.
Temperatures are expected to remain higher than usual, with both maximum and minimum temperatures likely to exceed normal levels in January, a trend anticipated to continue through March. “With the currently established La Niña conditions, the country is likely to experience above-average rainfall,” the service noted, emphasizing that such conditions typically amplify rainfall across Fiji during the wet season.
In light of these forecasts, authorities are advising communities, farmers, and businesses to prepare for potential heavy rain, flooding episodes, and warmer conditions, while encouraging everyone to keep abreast of official weather updates. This proactive approach can help mitigate impacts and ensure the safety and preparedness of all affected regions.
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