Fiji’s population growth is slowing sharply, with official projections showing the country is unlikely to hit the one-million mark until 2034-35. The Fiji Bureau of Statistics says several factors are at play: a hollowing out of the workforce as people seek jobs overseas, a steep drop in fertility, and higher mortality from non-communicable diseases.
Fertility in particular has dived, with births dropping from about 20,000 per year in the past to only around 70 to 80 births annually in recent years. Demographers also point to shifts in the country’s major ethnic groups driven by historical events and migration patterns, and they warn that political instability could further influence population movements.
These dynamics sit alongside a broader regional conversation about migration to Australia and New Zealand. Recent analyses by economists monitoring Fiji’s population trends suggest that the surge in overseas departures may be easing as migration policies in Fiji’s two main destination countries tighten. In the years 2022 and 2023, about 58,223 Fijians left for work, education, or emigration—roughly 6.6% of the population. Yet the net loss was estimated at about 25,627 people (2.9% of the population), a figure many analysts describe as likely temporary rather than a lasting trend.
Looking forward, there is cautious optimism that net migration could become a positive contributor to Fiji’s population from around 2026. The expectation is that student migration will decline after a surge during the pandemic, long-term work departures will ease from recent highs, and many students returning home after studies will bolster Fiji’s long-term arrivals. Both Australia and New Zealand have tightened visa rules and pathways to permanent residency, which is expected to reduce outward migration, while employment-linked programs like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme are likely to continue supporting a steady flow of workers above pre-pandemic levels.
These migration shifts could have a meaningful impact beyond demographics. A return to net population growth could lift domestic consumption, spur housing and infrastructure investment, and strengthen Fiji’s labor force in the medium to long term. The evolving migration picture underscores how destination-country policies, local birthrates, and health trends intersect to shape Fiji’s future.
Additional context and value to readers:
– The tension between declining fertility and rising mortality highlights the importance of policy measures that support family formation and healthy aging, alongside economic opportunities at home.
– If the return of students and workers continues as projected, Fiji could experience a gradual rebalancing of its population by 2026, with positive knock-on effects for services, housing, and infrastructure planning.
– Policymakers may benefit from tracking migration policy changes in Australia and New Zealand and preparing incentives for skilled returnees, while also ensuring that local development avenues remain attractive to prevent future outflows.
In short, while the immediate outlook shows slower population growth, the combination of easing migration outflows, anticipated return migration, and ongoing workforce programs offers a hopeful path toward stabilizing Fiji’s population and supporting broader economic activity in the coming years.
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