Papua New Guinea (PNG) experienced a remarkable year for cocoa exports in 2024, generating export revenue of PGK1.233 billion. This milestone marks the first time cocoa has surpassed coffee, which brought in PGK989 million in the country’s history. However, this higher ranking for cocoa may be temporary as the supply cannot rapidly increase due to the challenges of small historical crop sizes.
On the other side, coffee is projected to have another successful year, recovering from a low-volume season last year. Coffee yields in PNG are known to alternate between high and low-volume seasons. Recent surges in global coffee prices, particularly influenced by adverse weather conditions impacting Brazil’s crop, could lead to coffee reclaiming its top position against cocoa.
Looking ahead to 2025, forecasts suggest a significant revenue shift with coffee expected to generate PGK1.58 billion and cocoa PGK1.363 billion. The overall projection for combined revenue from coffee and cocoa stands at PGK3 billion, exceeding last year’s record of PGK2.222 billion.
Moreover, the global cocoa market has been influenced by a 13.1% decline in crop production due to drought and disease affecting major producers like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Despite cocoa prices rallying initially, they experienced a slight retreat due to recent rains in West Africa and a drop in European demand. This is expected to keep the market tight, with average cocoa prices projected at around USD8,000 per ton for 2025.
In contrast, coffee demand continues to remain robust, with prices anticipated to average USD2.95 per pound in 2025, marking the highest annual average recorded. With a backdrop of strong prices, coffee export volumes are also expected to rebound, with projections of over one million bags exported in 2025.
While the cocoa market remains resilient, PNG’s capacity to grow cocoa export volumes faces limitations due to farmers switching to more profitable balsa wood plantations over the past decade. Nonetheless, high cocoa prices have encouraged farmers to invest back into their cocoa production, which may slightly boost exports to 42,000 tons for 2025.
These developments in PNG’s cocoa and coffee sectors highlight a competitive landscape, with coffee potentially reclaiming its traditional dominance. The focus on supporting local farmers through initiatives and investments in agricultural practices can contribute positively to both sectors, fostering economic growth and sustainability.
In summary, while challenges remain for both the coffee and cocoa markets, the outlook appears promising as PNG navigates a landscape of fluctuating prices and shifting demands, showing resilience in its agricultural export capabilities.
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