The Pacific’s key diplomatic organizations have expressed a willingness to engage with Papua New Guinea’s Autonomous Government of Bougainville as discussions begin on the delayed ratification of the region’s 2019 independence referendum. Leaders from both PNG and Bougainville recently convened in Port Moresby with a moderator to initiate negotiations surrounding the implementation of the UN-supervised Bougainville Peace Agreement.
Ahead of these crucial talks, Bougainville’s President, Ishmael Toroama, has reiterated a significant point by announcing a unilateral declaration of independence slated for September 1, 2027. This announcement comes in light of ongoing stagnation regarding the PNG Parliament’s ratification of the referendum, during which 97.7 percent of Bougainvillians voted for independence. Previous discussions regarding whether a simple or two-thirds majority vote is needed for parliamentary approval have compounded the delays.
Traditionally, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) have refrained from directly intervening in matters concerning Bougainville independence, treating it as an internal issue for PNG. However, the growing likelihood of Bougainville’s declaration of nationhood appears to be shifting that stance. PIF Secretary-General Baron Waqa has indicated that if the matter arises formally—potentially from Bougainville itself—discussions may commence.
Additionally, President Toroama has indicated plans for Bougainville to seek observer status at the MSG, which comprises PNG, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and New Caledonia’s FLNKS. While no official application has been made yet, the MSG has acknowledged its close monitoring of developments related to Bougainville’s aspirations for independence.
The backdrop to these discussions is the painful memory of the Bougainville crisis, which cost nearly 15,000 lives over a decade. The 2001 peace agreement concluded this conflict, creating a structured path for disarmament and the eventual referendum. However, much work remains, particularly as the region is currently reliant on external support for approximately 95 percent of its budget, including funding from the PNG government.
Prime Minister James Marape has acknowledged the referendum outcome and expressed a commitment to discuss it in Parliament. He has, however, cautioned that economic sustainability is crucial before Bougainville can achieve political independence, highlighting concerns about the region’s reliance on external funding sources. Proposals are underway to reactivate the former Panguna mine, a significant element in Bougainville’s economic future, yet discussions reflect the complexities surrounding the economy and governance.
Amid these negotiations, Bougainvillean leaders are steadfast in pursuing their goal of independence, expressing a resilient hope for a future where self-determination and effective governance can be realized. The unfolding dialogue presents a hopeful opportunity for Bougainville, as both the PNG Government and Bougainville’s leadership engage in what could lead towards a recognized and sustainable political future.
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