The key diplomatic organizations in the Pacific are ready to engage with Papua New Guinea’s Autonomous Government of Bougainville as discussions commence regarding the ratification of the region’s long-delayed 2019 independence referendum. Recently, leaders from PNG and Bougainville met in Port Moresby to initiate negotiations on the implementation of the UN-supervised Bougainville Peace Agreement.
Bougainville’s President Ishmael Toroama declared a unilateral intention for independence scheduled for September 1, 2027, citing the stagnation of the PNG Parliament in ratifying the referendum, where 97.7 percent of Bougainvillians voted in favor of independence. There has been confusion over whether a simple majority or a two-thirds majority is necessary for parliamentary approval, contributing to these delays.
Although the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) have generally avoided intervening in Bougainville’s quest for independence, the growing possibility of a formal declaration seems to be prompting a change in this policy. PIF Secretary-General Baron Waqa expressed that formal discussions could begin if the issue is raised by Bougainville.
In addition, President Toroama has plans for Bougainville to request observer status at the MSG, which currently includes countries like Fiji, Solomon Islands, and New Caledonia’s FLNKS. While no official application has been submitted yet, the MSG is closely monitoring Bougainville’s quest for independence.
The discussions are set against the backdrop of the tragic Bougainville crisis, which resulted in nearly 15,000 fatalities over the course of a decade. The peace agreement established in 2001 laid the groundwork for disarmament and the referendum, but significant challenges remain, notably the region’s heavy reliance on external support, with about 95 percent of its budget funded by the PNG government.
PNG Prime Minister James Marape has acknowledged the referendum results and has committed to addressing the issue in Parliament. However, he emphasized the need for economic sustainability before Bougainville can achieve political independence, addressing concerns surrounding the region’s dependence on external funding. Efforts are being proposed to revive the former Panguna mine, which is seen as a critical factor for Bougainville’s economic stability, though discussions reveal complexities in governance and economic viability.
Despite these challenges, Bougainvillean leaders remain resolute in their pursuit of independence, embodying a resilient hope for a future characterized by self-determination and effective governance. The ongoing dialogue presents an optimistic pathway for Bougainville, as both the PNG Government and local leaders engage in a process that could ultimately lead to recognized and sustainable political sovereignty.
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