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Australia’s Rugby League Gamble: Soft Power or Statecraft?

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Details have surfaced regarding an Australian government initiative aimed at assisting the establishment of a National Rugby League (NRL) club in Papua New Guinea. Canberra is proposing AU$600 million over a ten-year period for the potential club, contingent upon the PNG government refraining from signing a security agreement with China.

The Australian government sees this offer as a way to exert “soft power,” capitalizing on the deep passion for rugby league in Papua New Guinea. However, doubts remain about the effectiveness of the plan.

Gordon Peake, affiliated with the US Institute of Peace in Washington DC and a frequent visitor to Papua New Guinea, shared his insights on the matter. He acknowledged the immense love for rugby league among Papua New Guineans and highlighted that Australia’s support for their entry into the NRL has been framed as a soft power initiative to strengthen bilateral relations. Although he described Australia’s proposal as generous, he noted that its conditions related to geopolitical dynamics and their relationship with China transform the nature of the offer from soft to hard power.

Peake elaborated on the complexity of intertwining rugby league support with political agreements, raising concerns about the feasibility of the initiative. He emphasized the stark contrast between these two separate matters and questioned how they could coexist without conflict.

Moreover, he pointed out that if the proposal were to fail, it could deeply disappoint rugby league fans in Papua New Guinea, undermining local enthusiasm. Despite the excitement surrounding the rugby league initiative, some locals have expressed reservations about the significant funding being allocated, suggesting that those resources would be better spent on critical areas like healthcare and education.

Peake also noted that maintaining face is crucial in diplomacy, and both Australia and Papua New Guinea’s leaders would seek to avoid embarrassment if the rugby league project collapsed. He remarked that Australia’s ongoing engagement with Papua New Guinean leaders in sports-related diplomacy indicates that this initiative is likely to persist, despite the inherent risks.

Regarding China’s perspective on the Australian offer, Peake suggested that China might view supporting a rugby league club as a less effective method of projecting soft power compared to their existing scholarship programs, which allow Pacific Islanders to study in China at a much lower cost.

The intermingling of sports diplomacy and international relations reflects the broader dynamics of influence in the Pacific region, with Australia navigating complex political waters while trying to foster a passion for rugby league in Papua New Guinea.

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