New climate data reveals that 2025 was the fifth warmest year ever recorded in the western Pacific, marking a significant continuation of the long-term warming trend affecting the region. This information comes from ERA5, a global climate dataset provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which indicated that 2025 was the third warmest year globally, following the record years of 2024 and 2023.
Throughout the western Pacific, the average air temperature in 2025 was 0.65 °C higher than the baseline average from 1961 to 1990. The rise in temperatures has been consistent, increasing approximately 0.1 °C each decade since 1940. Remarkably, every year since 1986 has recorded temperatures above the long-term average, with the five hottest years all occurring since 2016.
Specifically, 2025 saw particularly elevated temperatures notably in the western equatorial Pacific and the Coral Sea, including regions around Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia. These elevated conditions appear to be associated with unprecedented high sea surface temperatures in these areas. Both maximum and minimum temperatures in 2025 exceeded average figures by 0.68 °C and 0.63 °C, respectively, placing them among the top five highest on record.
Conversely, some parts of the central tropical Pacific experienced cooler-than-average temperatures, which align with neutral ENSO or La Niña conditions affecting sea surface temperatures.
Monitoring air temperature in the Pacific is crucial, as regional temperature trends don’t always align with global averages. Even minor increases in temperature can significantly impact health, food security, ecosystems, and the daily lives of Pacific communities.
Salesa Nihmei, Director of the Climate Science and Information Programme at SPREP, emphasized the urgent need for accurate climate data. “The Pacific is warming, and the science is clear,” he stated. He highlighted the roles of regional initiatives like the Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network and the Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac), which help translate climate data into actionable insights for nations to managed climate-related risks effectively.
Supported by Australia and New Zealand through COSPPac, which is now in its third phase, this initiative aims to provide accessible, accurate climate information to meet public needs and support governmental planning and international negotiations regarding climate assessments.
The ongoing changes in the Pacific’s climate underline the critical importance of reliable climate data and the necessity of sustained regional support to equip communities for future challenges. Positive collaboration and efforts can foster resilience and preparedness against climate change impacts.
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