The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday confirmed the onset of an El Niño event and warned it is likely to drive above‑average temperatures “nearly everywhere” and fuel more extreme weather worldwide, urging nations to strengthen early‑warning systems and preparedness. The WMO said there is an 80 percent chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August, rising to 90 percent thereafter.
WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo told journalists the update matters because El Niño is “a major driver of global weather and climate patterns” whose effects extend far beyond the tropical Pacific, touching agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains and livelihoods across entire regions. The agency highlighted alarming tropical Pacific Ocean temperature readings — reported at 6°C above average — that could allow this El Niño to intensify and compound impacts on vulnerable and unprepared communities.
UN Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres called the confirmation “the urgent climate warning it is,” underscoring the need for immediate action to protect lives and livelihoods. Saulo noted the last El Niño in 2023–24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024, a reminder of the knock‑on consequences for societies already coping with climate stress.
The WMO flagged that while there is currently “no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events,” a warmer ocean and atmosphere amplify the impacts El Niño generates. That extra heat and moisture make extreme events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall more likely and more damaging, increasing the urgency of investments to strengthen preparedness and response capacity.
In practical terms, the WMO said it and partner weather agencies will intensify monitoring in the coming months to provide the seasonal forecasts and early warnings governments, humanitarian organisations and climate‑sensitive sectors need to make informed decisions. “Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” Saulo said, stressing that better science and forecasting mean countries can prepare more effectively if they invest in systems and infrastructure.
For Pacific island states such as Fiji, Vanuatu and others, the announcement adds to existing seasonal risk considerations for heat, shifts in rainfall patterns, drought and the potential for enhanced cyclone activity where conditions favour it. The WMO said even a moderate El Niño increases the likelihood of some weather and climate extremes, and called on countries to shore up early‑warning systems, emergency planning and resilience measures now that the event’s development has been confirmed.