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Illustration of How the US election may affect Pacific Island nations

US Election: What’s at Stake for the Pacific Islands?

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As the US presidential election approaches, territories such as Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, along with the Pacific region, are closely monitoring the political developments. The outcome of the election, whether it leads to a continuation of the Biden administration under Kamala Harris or a return of Donald Trump, will undoubtedly have significant implications for these small island nations, particularly concerning climate change and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Experts, including academics, along with New Zealand’s US ambassador and Guam’s Congressman, have emphasized the importance of these elections for the Pacific. Anna Powles, a senior lecturer at Massey University, highlighted the pressing challenges that climate change poses to small island nations, which are often overshadowed by the US-China rivalry for influence in the region. As Pacific leaders express their concerns over the balance of power, they remain hopeful for increased US engagement that prioritizes peace and stability.

With recent developments, including China’s military activities and the US’s response through enhanced military presence in Guam, the stakes are high. The Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General has called for a focus on regional security rather than the arms race triggered by US-China tensions.

Whatever the outcome of the election, US Ambassador to New Zealand, Tom Udall, insists that past administrations have sought to strengthen ties with the Pacific. While both potential presidents may differ on domestic policies and approaches to climate issues, they share a common view of China as a major external threat. Consequently, US efforts to fortify partnerships in the Pacific have intensified, underlined by actions like reopening embassies and increased investments in economic development and health security.

Guam, serving as a strategic military outpost, faces unique challenges. Congressman James Moylan advocates for increased awareness and support from Congress for Guam, focusing on security and the need for economic growth amidst geopolitical uncertainty.

Despite the increased military focus, Guamanians continue to grapple with the reality of being underrepresented in US politics, as they cannot vote in federal elections. Moylan remains optimistic about the future, regardless of the election outcome, asserting that discussions regarding compensation for nuclear radiation survivors will persist.

The divergent paths anticipated under either a Trump or Harris presidency present both uncertainty and potential opportunities for the Pacific Island nations. Should Harris win, there is hope for meaningful progress on climate action and enhanced cooperation in the region, particularly in terms of implementing commitments made during Biden’s presidency.

In conclusion, as the election nears, the dual prospects of a Trump or Harris win leave Pacific Island nations balancing hope and trepidation about the future of their partnerships with the US. The outcome will likely shape the region’s approach to critical issues like climate change and geopolitical stability.

In a positive light, regardless of the election results, enhanced attention to the Pacific’s needs and contributions can lead to stronger collaborative efforts. Both the US government and Pacific leaders share a common goal of fostering peace and resilience, which could bring about a more sustainable and secure future for these small but vital nations.


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