As the U.S. election approaches, regions including the Northern Marianas, American Samoa, Guam, and the wider Pacific territories are closely observing its implications. With the possibility of either Kamala Harris retaining the presidency or Donald Trump returning to power, experts and local representatives are evaluating how these outcomes might affect the Pacific.
Academics, such as Anna Powles from Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, predict that the elections will significantly impact small island nations grappling with climate change and heightened geopolitical tensions. With an increased military presence in Guam, especially following China’s recent missile tests, the stakes are high. Pacific leaders express concerns that the real dangers posed by climate change are being eclipsed by the rivalry between China and the U.S. for regional dominance.
Powles notes that it is not unexpected for countries like New Zealand and Australia to align more closely with the U.S., particularly as the Biden administration has pursued strategic partnerships with these countries since 2018. However, she warns that public discussions in New Zealand about the implications of this alignment are insufficient.
The Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa emphasizes the importance of prioritizing “peace and stability” in the region amidst this geopolitical rivalry. Despite aspirations for a “Pacific Zone of Peace,” military investments from the U.S. continue to escalate, alongside fears of a growing arms race between China and the U.S.
Both presidential candidates recognize China as a primary concern for U.S. interests in the region. Historical trends indicate that recent administrations have sought to re-engage with the Pacific, highlighting the delicate balance of needing both strong defense and meaningful economic development in response to escalating tensions.
In Guam, Congressman James Moylan advocates for the island’s needs and seeks stronger support from the mainland, noting that despite Guam’s strategic military position, its residents lack voting representation. He expresses preference for a Trump presidency, anticipating enhanced security efforts against external threats.
However, experts caution that a Trump administration may disrupt ongoing cooperative security initiatives and overlook critical issues like climate change. In contrast, a win for Harris could lead to increased attention on aid and diplomatic commitments previously made to the Pacific. She has pledged to address climate change as a leading existential threat, emphasizing the need for tangible results from U.S. partnerships in the region.
Overall, the Pacific territories hope that regardless of the election outcome, the United States will fortify its commitment to regional security and development, while leaders emphasize the importance of follow-through on pledged support for climate resilience and economic prosperity.
This situation highlights the Pacific’s crucial role in the larger global geopolitical framework, ensuring that their voices are heard in discussions that will shape their future. As the election unfolds, there remains a hopeful outlook that leaders from the Pacific will push for proactive engagement and support from their U.S. counterparts.
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