As the effects of the pandemic diminish, travel in the Pacific is experiencing a revival, albeit unevenly across the region.
Data comparing visitor arrivals in 2023 to those in 2019 indicates that Vanuatu appears to be leading the recovery, but this interpretation may be misleading. The country has seen a significant increase in cruise tourism, with cruise arrivals nearly doubling between 2019 and 2023, outpacing air arrivals by more than three times. However, this surge in cruise tourism is characterized as “fickle and volatile,” which can strain existing labor resources and yields considerably less revenue compared to air tourism. In 2019, despite having 40 percent more cruise tourists than air tourists, the latter generated about nine times more revenue. Air tourism in Vanuatu has only managed to recover to 70 percent of its pre-COVID levels, with total air arrivals in 2023 at just 64 percent of 2019 figures.
Fiji has managed to achieve a 4 percent growth from its already strong pre-pandemic travel figures. Holiday arrivals, which made up over 70 percent of total arrivals in 2019, increased by 12 percent. However, other market segments are lagging behind, attracting only 82 percent of their pre-COVID visitor levels.
Samoa’s situation is also positive, with 2023 visitor arrivals just 3 percent below those of 2019. The Solomon Islands and Tonga are witnessing significant recovery, with visitor arrivals at 90 percent and 87 percent of pre-COVID levels, respectively. The Solomon Islands benefited from hosting the Pacific Games last year but would have only reached 70 percent of 2019 levels without that event in November.
In contrast, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Palau are struggling significantly. PNG’s air arrivals stand at only 68 percent of pre-COVID levels, while Palau’s figures are even lower at 44 percent. The lack of visitors from Asian countries contributes to Palau’s poor performance—while visitor numbers from Australia and New Zealand have fully bounced back, Asian visitors are still absent, leading to an overall 44 percent decline in visitors from Asian nations to the seven countries analyzed. Palau alone saw a 67 percent drop in Asian visitors, a significant issue as they constituted 82 percent of its total visitors in 2019. In contrast, Fiji saw an increase of 67,513 Australian visitors in 2023 compared to 2019, offsetting the decline from Asia.
PNG’s recovery is marked by sluggish arrivals across the board, including categories such as business and employment travel. Overall, visitor arrivals in 2023 are merely at 62 percent for business, 77 percent for employment, 64 percent for air tourism, and 61 percent for cruise tourism compared to 2019. When focusing solely on air arrivals, numbers have reverted to levels seen in 2007 or 2008, predating a significant boom that lasted until 2014.
The decline in air travel can be attributed to multiple factors, including flight disruptions due to fuel shortages, civil unrest, delays in resource projects, and a generally unfavorable business climate, all of which deter potential travelers. Moreover, many businesses, governments, and NGOs have adapted to operate without travel during the pandemic, making it unsurprising that total travel remains below pre-COVID levels.
Although less air travel may benefit the climate, the downturn poses challenges for the Pacific region, particularly for economies like Palau, PNG, and Vanuatu that heavily rely on tourism. The current travel data reveals concerning trends for these economies moving forward.