As the U.S. election approaches, territories such as the Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, along with the broader Pacific region, are closely monitoring the situation. The decision on whether Vice President Kamala Harris will continue in the White House or former President Donald Trump will return has significant implications for these regions.
Experts, including Anna Powles from Massey University, emphasize that the election outcome will influence small island nations confronted with the dual challenges of climate change and increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly in light of recent military escalations in Guam related to China’s missile tests. There are rising concerns among Pacific leaders that the pressing threat of climate change is being overshadowed by competition between the U.S. and China for regional influence.
Powles noted that the alignment of countries like New Zealand and Australia with the U.S. is expected, as the Biden administration has actively sought to strengthen partnerships in the Pacific since 2018. Despite New Zealand’s reliance on China for trade, the nation is attentive to developments in U.S. policy.
Pacific leaders advocate for increased U.S. engagement, but express unease over ongoing geopolitical rivalries. During the recent South Pacific Defence Ministers meeting in Auckland, Baron Waqa, the Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum, highlighted the need to prioritize regional peace and stability over the arms race exacerbated by U.S.-China tensions.
While both candidates may have different approaches to key issues like climate change and multilateralism, they share a common perspective on China being the principal external threat to U.S. interests. The U.S. has been reinforcing its presence in the Pacific in response to China’s increasing assertiveness, exemplified by the reopening of embassies in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Tonga.
Despite these efforts, Pacific leaders are calling for more concrete actions rather than just promises. U.S. defense strategies in the region have ramped up significantly, particularly following the 2022 security deal between the Solomon Islands and China, which has prompted greater military investment in Guam—a territory that stands at the forefront of potential conflict.
Guam’s unique status as a U.S. territory means that its citizens are disenfranchised, unable to vote in federal elections. Congressman James Moylan emphasizes the necessity of increased support for Guam, while voicing a preference for a Trump presidency, citing previous experiences of collaboration across party lines on vital issues regarding security and community welfare.
While there are concerns surrounding a potential Trump administration’s impact on Pacific stability and climate initiatives, the prospect of a Harris victory presents an opportunity for the fulfillment of pledges related to climate financing and enhanced economic support for Pacific nations. Harris has historically prioritized climate concerns, and a continued Democratic leadership could lead to significant advancements in addressing these pressing issues.
In conclusion, regardless of the election outcome, the Pacific region remains resilient and hopeful for meaningful U.S. engagement that addresses both security and climate challenges. The ongoing commitment from leaders like Moylan, paired with the necessity for substantial and actionable agreements, suggests a path toward greater collaboration and stability in these vulnerable island communities.
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