As the pandemic’s impact diminishes, travel in the Pacific region is experiencing a notable rebound, but the recovery is uneven across different locations.
When comparing visitor arrivals in 2023 to those in 2019, Vanuatu appears to be a standout performer. However, this perception can be misleading. The island has seen a significant increase in cruise tourism, with cruise arrivals almost doubling since 2019 and outpacing air arrivals by more than three times in 2023. Despite this growth, cruise tourism can be unpredictable and less lucrative than air tourism. In 2019, although there were 40% more cruise tourists, the revenue generated from air travelers was approximately nine times greater. Currently, air tourism in Vanuatu has only reached 70% of pre-COVID levels, with total air arrivals at 64% of 2019 figures.
Fiji has also fared well, achieving a 4% increase in arrivals compared to its already high pre-pandemic numbers. Holiday arrivals, which made up over 70% of total arrivals in 2019, have risen by 12%. Nonetheless, other segments are still lagging, with only 82% of pre-COVID visitor levels.
Samoa is close to pre-pandemic levels, with arrivals in 2023 just 3% lower than in 2019. Solomon Islands and Tonga show recoveries of 90% and 87%, respectively, but are still below their previous figures. Solomon Islands benefitted from hosting the Pacific Games last year, although without that event, arrivals would have fallen to 70% of 2019 levels.
On the other hand, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Palau are struggling significantly. PNG has reached only 68% of its pre-pandemic air arrivals, while Palau’s recovery is even worse at just 44%. This decline in Palau can be attributed to the slow return of visitors from Asia. While travelers from Australia and New Zealand have returned to pre-COVID levels, those from Asia have dropped by 44% across seven countries, affecting both Palau and Vanuatu particularly hard, with declines of 67% and 55% respectively. In 2019, Asian visitors accounted for 82% of Palau’s total arrivals, whereas other Pacific nations attract a higher proportion from Australia and New Zealand.
The situation in PNG is more complex, as its recovery has stagnated across all travel purposes. Overall arrivals are only at 62% for business, 77% for employment, 64% for air tourism, and 61% for cruise tourism relative to 2019. Current air arrival numbers are reminiscent of levels seen in 2007 or 2008, marking the beginning of a previous growth period that ended in 2014. The drop in air travel is compounded by factors such as fuel shortages, social unrest, protracted resource development projects, and a generally sluggish business climate.
While reduced air travel may have positive implications for climate considerations, the decline poses challenges for the Pacific region’s tourism and business sectors. Alarming trends in travel data suggest potential economic difficulties for several nations, particularly Palau, PNG, and Vanuatu.