As the impact of the pandemic diminishes, travel within the Pacific region is experiencing a rebound, although the recovery is uneven across different destinations.
In 2023, Vanuatu appears to have gained the most in terms of visitor arrivals compared to 2019. However, it’s important to note that this success is largely driven by cruise tourism, which has nearly doubled since 2019 and now significantly outnumbers air arrivals. Despite this, cruise tourism can be unpredictable and less lucrative, putting pressure on local labor resources. In 2019, although there were more cruise tourists than air tourists, the latter generated about nine times more revenue.
Air tourism in Vanuatu has only recovered to 70% of pre-COVID levels, with total air arrivals in 2023 amounting to just 64% of what they were in 2019. Fiji has seen a modest 4% increase from its already strong pre-pandemic numbers, with holiday arrivals making up over 70% of the total and increasing by 12%. However, other segments are still lagging, attracting only 82% of their pre-COVID visitors.
Samoa has similarly fared well, with 2023 visitor arrivals just 3% shy of 2019 figures. The Solomon Islands and Tonga are also recovering, with visitor arrivals at 90% and 87% of pre-COVID levels, respectively, aided by events like the Pacific Games in the Solomon Islands last year. However, if November figures had matched those of earlier months, the Solomon Islands would have seen arrivals only reaching 70% of pre-pandemic levels.
In contrast, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Palau are struggling significantly, with PNG achieving only 68% of its pre-COVID air arrivals and Palau at just 44%. The decline in Palau’s visitor numbers can be traced back to slow recovery of tourists from Asian countries, which decreased by 44% overall. Notably, visitors from Asia made up a substantial proportion of Palau’s total tourists in 2019, representing 82%. While Australia and New Zealand’s visitor numbers have returned to pre-COVID levels, the decline from Asia has had a particularly detrimental impact on Palau and Vanuatu.
In Fiji, the influx of Australian visitors has helped offset the reduction from Asia, with 67,513 more Australians visiting in 2023 compared to 2019. PNG’s slow recovery is evident from various source countries and purposes of travel, with 2023 arrivals ranging from 61% for cruise tourism to 77% for employment-related travel, often matching levels seen back in 2007 or 2008.
Multiple factors, including flight disruptions, local violence, and a weak business environment, have hampered PNG’s tourism recovery. As businesses and organizations adapted to the pandemic by avoiding travel, a full rebound in total travel is unlikely. While reduced air travel may have environmental benefits, it poses challenges for Pacific economies, particularly for Palau, PNG, and Vanuatu, which are facing concerning indicators in their tourism data.