As the pandemic subsides and begins to fade from memory, travel across the Pacific is making a comeback, albeit with significant variations in recovery rates.
Analyzing visitor statistics for 2023 compared to 2019, Vanuatu appears to be the standout performer; however, this interpretation can be misleading. The country has experienced a significant uptick in cruise tourism, with cruise arrivals nearly doubling between 2019 and 2023, surpassing air arrivals by more than three times. Despite this growth, cruise tourism is described as “fickle and volatile,” putting strain on limited labor resources and generating considerably less revenue than air travel. In 2019, while there were 40 percent more cruise visitors than air travelers, the latter contributed about nine times more revenue.
Air tourism in Vanuatu has only returned to 70 percent of its pre-pandemic levels, with overall air arrivals in 2023 at a mere 64 percent of the 2019 figures.
Fiji has managed to achieve a modest growth of 4 percent from its already robust pre-pandemic travel figures. Holiday arrivals, which comprised over 70 percent of total arrivals in 2019, saw a 12 percent increase in 2023. However, other market segments still lag, attracting only 82 percent of their pre-COVID visitor levels.
Samoa is also doing well, with arrivals in 2023 just 3 percent below 2019 figures. The Solomon Islands and Tonga are witnessing visitor arrivals approaching pre-COVID levels, at 90 percent and 87 percent recovery, respectively, with the Solomon Islands benefiting from hosting the Pacific Games last year. Without the spike from November arrivals, which were above average, it is estimated that the Solomon Islands’ total for 2023 would have been only 70 percent of 2019 levels.
In stark contrast are Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Palau. PNG is currently at only 68 percent of its pre-COVID air arrival levels, while Palau struggles with just 44 percent. The disappointing numbers for Palau can be attributed to a slow return of visitors from Asian countries, which saw a 44 percent overall decrease in arrivals across seven countries. In Palau, the decline is particularly sharp at 67 percent, as travelers from Asia comprised 82 percent of the total visitors in 2019.
In Fiji, the number of Australian visitors in 2023 exceeded 67,000 compared to 2019, effectively compensating for the dip in Asian tourism. PNG’s recovery has been sluggish across all travel purposes, with current arrivals only reaching 62 percent for business, 77 percent for employment, 64 percent for air tourism, and 61 percent for cruise tourism compared to 2019 levels. Air arrival volumes have regressed to levels not seen since 2007 or 2008, following a boom that ended in 2014.
Various factors like fuel rationing, violence, riots, delayed resource projects, and a depressed business environment have influenced return rates of travelers. Additionally, many businesses, governments, and NGOs have adapted to functioning without travel during the pandemic, making the complete recovery of travel seem less urgent.
While decreased air travel can have positive implications for climate considerations, the ongoing decline presents challenges for tourism and overall business conditions in the Pacific. This data raises serious concerns for economies in Palau, PNG, and Vanuatu as they navigate the path to recovery.